WHEATON, Md.-Wireless local loop subscribers are expected to double in the next four years, from 172 million to 367 million, according to a new report by Herschel Shosteck Associates Ltd.
The Wheaton, Md.-based firm focused exclusively on developing countries of the world, those with per capita incomes of less than $10,000 a year. Using the data base of the International Telecommunication Union, Shosteck found that more than 50 million people are on waiting lists for basic telephone service in developing countries. For instance, there were 27 million people waiting for phones in 1984; in 1995, 55 million were on waiting lists.
The privatization of government telecom operations worldwide is allowing WLL market expansion, particularly in Latin America, Southeast Asia and China, Shosteck noted. Without restrictive, government limitations on service, Shosteck estimated the free-market income threshold at which a family can afford a phone may be about $5,200 per household.
WLL systems can be less costly to build than other wireless systems, the report stated. Unlike mobile systems, WLL systems don’t require hand-offs, can use directional antennas, require fewer cell sites and WLL signaling can be compatible with the copper wire network.
Costs for WLL systems have fallen from about $3,500-$5,000 per subscriber in 1985 to about $500 per subscriber for the WLL system Motorola Inc. is building in Hungary, according to the report.
