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GSM MOU’S NUGTER PREDICTS 3 STANDARDS FOR THIRD-GENERATION: ASSOCIATION COUNTS 60M USERS WORLDWIDE BY THE END OF YEAR

As the Global System for Mobile communications community celebrates the inroads the technology has made throughout the world, the GSM MoU Association said it will continue to promote the technology worldwide and make sure third-generation technology incorporates a GSM platform and open interface.

As of September, GSM subscribers around the world numbered 55 million. “We now have GSM operations in 600 countries,” said Adriana Nugter, chairwoman of the GSM MoU and managing director of European public policy for AirTouch International. “We expect to have 60 million [subscribers] by the end of 1997.” North American GSM operators recently celebrated their collective gain of more than 1 million customers.

In comparison, cdmaOne worldwide subscribers reached 4.25 million in September, and the CDMA Development Group expects world subscribers to number 6 million by the end of the year. GSM technology has been in commercial operation for nearly 10 years, while Code Division Multiple Access technology based on Interim Standard 95 was introduced commercially for the first time in January 1996.

GSM technology is in a race with cdmaOne for adoption in some of the world’s key markets, but it is evident technology selections around the world will be fragmented, like in North America. GSM technology encompasses almost all of Europe, however, and cdmaOne already has grabbed some important Asian markets like Korea and Japan.

Nugter touts GSM’s global roaming capability as one of the technology’s major advantages over other digital technologies. The GSM MoU is working to enhance the GSM technology’s roaming capabilities by lobbying for tri-mode handsets that operate in three different frequencies, enabling instant roaming. Currently, GSM subscribers roaming in other countries cannot use their handsets. Roaming is achieved when the user places his subscriber identity module card-which contains identity and other user information-into a replacement handset.

Nugter said she expects some manufacturers to introduce a tri-mode handset next year.

The GSM MoU is not backing any one technology for 3G applications, but has been working with standards bodies around the world to ensure that a GSM platform remains and an open-standard solution is adopted to keep costs down on the supply side. GSM is an open standard with few proprietary solutions, which pays off in economies of scale, said Nugter.

Qualcomm Inc. holds the intellectual property rights to cdmaOne technology.

“At the moment, [the 3G process] seems a bit chaotic,” said Nugter. “I think in the end it will settle to different groups. There seems to be support for a family concept. We probably will see three standards coming to service. They would interwork together. The one global standard is not necessary and probably not feasible either.”

A plethora of 3G solutions are on the table in Asia, Europe and North America. The lack of conformity throughout the world has caused the International Telecommunications Union-the United Nations’ telecommunications arm that has laid out a set of generic requirements for next-generation standards-to propose an IMT-2000 Family of Systems for 3G standards. It is hoped those standards will establish commonality and facilitate global roaming between the various 3G technologies emerging around the world. The CDG supports this concept as well.

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