The Asia-Pacific market will by far be the world’s largest regional wireless telephony market by 2002, said a new study released by The Strategis Group in Washington, D.C.
The firm predicts, based on examinations of 23 Asia-Pacific countries, that the Asia-Pacific market subscriber base will reach 221.5 million by 2002. Europe will be second with 157 million, followed by North America with nearly 124 million and Latin America with 45 million.
The study, “Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Markets: 1997,” also predicts that subscriber service revenues in the Asia-Pacific will continually increase during a five-year period, reaching $89.4 billion by 2002.
The recent currency devaluations some Asia-Pacific countries are experiencing will not have an effect on cellular demand or growth, The Strategis Group noted, saying it
expects growth levels for cellular and personal communications services in the entire region to stay at levels between 20 percent and 40 percent annually through 2001, falling to 16 percent in 2002.
Market growth in the Asia-Pacific region has prompted cellular operators to launch digital networks to expand capacity, said the report. Digital subscribers will account for 72 percent of the Asia-Pacific region’s total subscriber base by the end of this year, and by 2002, they will reach 92 percent.
In terms of widespread use, Global System for Mobile communications technology is the primary digital standard in the region, but Japan’s Personal Digital Cellular standard has the largest subscriber base, said the study, reaching 26 million by year-end.
“The Strategis Group projects a shift in digital technology mix over the next few years, however, largely due to the success of CDMA IS-95 deployment in South Korea and Hong Kong, and the planned deployment in large markets such as Japan and China. By 2002, the GSM 900 standard will lead the market with 35 percent of the total subscriber base, followed by
CDMA with 24 percent. PDC’s share will fall to 17 percent,” said the firm.
At year-end, more than 65 percent of the Asia-Pacific’s cellular and PCS subscriber base is found in Japan (50 percent) and China (18 percent). The Strategis Group expects swift subscriber growth in China and in newer markets like India and Vietnam. By 2002, Japan, China and South Korea are expected to remain Asia-Pacific’s leading markets.
