NEW YORK-Field-programmable gate arrays are poised to become the next key driver in the trend toward smaller, less expensive, more powerful and more quickly deployable cell sites, according to a new report by Allied Business Intelligence, Oyster Bay, N.Y.
Unlike the Application Specific Integrated Circuits widely used today, FPGAs “can easily be programmed and reprogrammed, so they allow for fast (network) deployment,” said Laurence Swasey, senior analyst for Allied.
“With ASICs, you (the carriers) code them, you send them to the vendor, which produces them and sends them back to you. The process takes two to three months.”
By comparison, getting field-programmable gate arrays up to snuff can be done on site at a carrier’s facilities within a matter of days. But they do cost more, and that has been a hindrance so far to their broader usage as an infrastructure component.
“FPGAs were five to ten times more expensive (than ASICs), but they are now about three to five times more expensive,” he said.
Swasey attributed the drop in price to increased volume and quality of FPGA production, prompted by carriers’ growing realization about the advantages of this new network component. Xylinx and DynaChip are two manufacturers of field-programmable gate arrays with which Swasey said he is familiar.
However, because ASICs cost less, they likely will remain dominant until at least 2002, the ABI study concluded.
Nevertheless, carriers needing to deploy coverage quickly could still find it advantageous to try out FPGAs during the early stages of their network construction, Swasey said. A carrier’s technical staff could use field-programmable gate arrays to develop the cookie- cutter mold they like and need, then use that programming as a model for ASICs purchased and installed later during the construction phase when rollout speed isn’t quite as critical.
ASICs, which are used in baseband processing, coding and decoding, heterodyne receivers and other necessary network functions, also are on a trajectory of technological advancement. Their size has gone from 80 microns in 1980 to 0.3 microns in 1997, and is closing in on 0.18 microns. While their size is diminishing, their functionality is increasing.
Digital signal processing also is moving ahead at a fast clip in enabling service providers to carry ever more conversations simultaneously on the same channels. The result is that base stations are “more powerful than they were five years ago, and it’s an incredible jump from 10 years ago,” Swasey said.
These developments are among the rapid technological advancements that are putting wireless telecommunications within economic reach of a growing portion of the world’s population, Swasey said.
Consequently, Allied Business Intelligence anticipates “unprecedented growth” for infrastructure and component manufacturers during the next five years.
“Component sales for wireless infrastructure will not match infrastructure growth directly due to the integration of discreet components and the move towards more powerful digital signal processors capable of handling four or six conversations per chip,” Swasey said.
