The annual growth rate of worldwide subscribers using Time Division Multiple Access technology is expected to increase more than 100 percent this year, according to figures released last week by the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium.
UWCC estimates there were 9.2 million TDMA subscribers worldwide last year. The consortium expects that number to reach 18.5 million this year, 35 million next year and 115 million by 2002. North American TDMA subscribers represented about 4 million of the total last year. UWCC expects North American TDMA subscribers to grow 113 percent to 8.5 million this year and reach 42.2 million subscribers by 2002.
“Our research indicates that this is a three-horse technology race, with TDMA clearly in second place behind the de facto European standard of [Global System for Mobile communications],” said Mike Buhrmann, president of the UWCC, a trade association representing more than 90 TDMA carriers and vendors.
Buhrmann said TDMA systems now are in place in 70 countries around the globe, including widespread coverage in North and South America. He also commented that TDMA is an easy conversion to digital from analog systems.
TDMA has taken an early lead among digital technologies in the United States. Several large carriers in the United States have selected TDMA technology including AT&T Wireless Services Inc., BellSouth Cellular Corp. and SBC Wireless Inc.
But many industry forecasts predict that Code Division Multiple Access technology will overtake TDMA in subscriber numbers in the United States sometime around the turn of the century.
Buhrmann said often TDMA technology is overlooked, and lack of information and misinterpretation of available data has led to reports and predictions not in line with reality. “Too often, TDMA is left out of the technology debate,” said Buhrmann. “The reality is that we have been quietly optimizing our networks and planning for the future.”
North American subscriber estimates were derived from actual subscriber numbers provided to the UWCC. The consortium said it has plans to release worldwide subscriber numbers broken down by country by mid-year.
