One of the special sections in this issue includes a large carrier chart listing the cellular and PCS operators of the world. Take a look, and you’ll see the phenomenal inroads wireless has made into every region of the world.
The growth has been phenomenal. It’s been a worldwide trend.
Even in the Asia-Pacific region last year, hit hard by the economic crisis, cellular triumphed. Wireless operators actually posted subscriber gains of nearly 48 percent overall in the region in 1998, according to The Strategis Group. In Thailand, where the crisis originated, the number of wireless subscribers grew 5.0 percent, even while the country’s economic growth was disparaging -8.0 percent. Phenomenally, in South Korea wireless growth was 134.6 percent, while economic growth was -5.5 percent.
However, it’s impossible to talk about the success of cellular without talking about the problems in the one-way paging market. The two go hand-in-hand, with the first a major cause of the second.
As with the success of cellular, the problems with paging are not localized. It has become a global trend. Consumers are no longer enticed by traditional paging alone because of the many options (and decreasing prices) that cellular, PCS and PHS offer.
Now, I realize this is not new information, but I want to emphasize the geographic extent of this trend. Paging penetration has never really taken off in Latin America and remains below 1 percent. Paging equipment sales growth in Europe, once averaging 25 percent annually, now is in the single digits. And in this issue of Global Wireless, we are reporting on the bankruptcy of Japanese paging operator TTM, the largest independent paging company in the country. After capturing 1.35 million customers as of the end of 1995, it had just 360,000 users when it declared bankruptcy this spring. The blame? Young users being drawn about by cellular and PHS.
There are a number of solutions bouncing around for repositioning the paging industry. The most talked about, perhaps, is the move toward two-way paging, or narrowband PCS. In Europe, the EPPA is set to release some very interesting findings of its study to develop a medium-term vision for paging. There isn’t a shortage of ideas.
But first things first. While still mindful of technology’s importance, I think the paging industry must first tackle the job of re-inventing its image, or at least developing a stronger image.
I have a fairly clear picture in my head of what cellular can do for me today and what third-generation cellular could be like-thanks to my own knowledge and those nice, sentimental TV ads. I understand the “image.”
On the other hand, I don’t think consumers have a clear image about what paging can really do for them today as a distinct service competitive with cellular, nor what it could bring in the future. The industry needs to communicate with its customers.
Maybe the paging industry should hire a PR agency. I hear the CDMA Development Group has had good luck with its public relations.
