Originally expected in May, two-way paging devices based on ReFLEX 25 technology will not be available for commercial deployment until the fourth quarter, at the earliest, according to pager manufacturers.
Motorola Inc. said its ReFLEX 25-based PageWriter 2000 two-way pager will be available mid-October, while the Wireless Access Group of Glenayre Technologies Inc. said the ReFLEX 25 version of its AccessLink II two-way pager should be available by early October.
This is the fourth time paging carriers have been told to wait for the devices. Without them, ReFLEX 25 carriers Paging Network Inc. and PageMart Wireless Inc., as well as their resellers, cannot launch facilities-based two-way paging services. Both carriers offer facilities-based ReFLEX 25 assured messaging, or 1.5-way, services to customers today.
However, these carriers seem fairly nonplused about the frequent delays, even though both PageNet and PageMart have pointed to the lack of ReFLEX 25 paging devices as the cause behind the two-way launch setbacks.
But according to the device manufacturers, carriers are just as much to blame for the hold-up as they are, perhaps one reason these carriers are slow to point their fingers more forcefully.
“The networks are not fully developed yet,” said Toni Cupal, product marketing manager for Glenayre Technologies Inc.’s Wireless Access Group. “Even if we had a perfectly working product today, we couldn’t deploy it because the networks aren’t there yet.”
PageMart President Ross Buckenham said the company is testing both the AccessLink II and the PageWriter on its test network in Dallas. Once all wrinkles are ironed out there, he said PageMart will initiate a nationwide software upgrade to allow for full two-way interactive messaging while the vendors ramp up from pre-production manufacturing to full-scale commercial deployment.
“Two components need to come together-a nationwide software upgrade and the devices,” said Buckenham. “There’s been challenges on both the network software side and the device side. Delays on both sides have slowed down the whole thing. It’s an end-to-end system issue.”
“This is just the normal process of implementing a new protocol,” Cupal added. “There’s a lot of pieces coming together at the same time. It’s easier to test the device when the network is fully in place, and it’s easier to test the network when the product is in place. You can’t have it both ways.”
PageNet, after initially naming an early summer two-way launch, now only says it will launch the service “later this year.”
PageMart originally expected to offer two-way this quarter, but Buckenham said delaying the launch to later in the fourth quarter is not something the company is concerned about.
“As long as it (two-way) comes out next year, I’ll be happy,” he said, stressing that the company’s current focus is on its assured messaging service.
“Two-way sounds cool and it’s fun to use, but really what is the meat and potatoes of loading up advanced networks is 1.5-way paging,” Buckenham said, adding that 95 percent of all advanced messaging subscriber additions have been assured messaging customers. “We’re anxious to get to two-way, but it’s not necessary to get there at a breakneck speed.”
However, several other carriers are dependent on PageMart’s launch to offer two-way services of their own through their resale agreements with PageMart. They include Metrocall Inc., Arch Communications Group Inc., AirTouch Paging and TSR Wireless L.L.C.
Metrocall President and Chief Executive Officer William Collins III, expressed some disappointment over the most recent delay, responding to an analyst’s question concerning the availability of two-way paging services during the company’s second-quarter earnings teleconference.
Mike Scanlon, Metrocall senior vice president of sales and marketing, explained that any two-way product delay past September makes it more difficult to plan a fourth-quarter retail marketing effort for it.
“Frankly, I’m disappointed,” Scanlon said. “We’d love to be able to put together a two-way product by the fourth quarter, but there’s no way to make plans with a delivery schedule that keeps getting pushed back … It’s almost impossible to put together a fourth-quarter retail marketing plan if you don’t have product in retail centers at the beginning of the quarter.”
However, he said this is not to say Metrocall won’t be ready to sell when the time comes.
“I’m still going to sell the heck out of it,” Scanlon said, referring to a “plan in the can” targeting high-end Metrocall customers through a direct mail campaign. He said Metrocall has divided its customer base into segments of Platinum, Gold, Silver, Bronze and new customers. When the two-way product is available, Scanlon said Metrocall will urge the Platinum and Gold customers to migrate to two-way.
He added that while the retail marketing effort may suffer from the delay, Metrocall will begin marketing the two-way product directly to its business customer accounts immediately.
Darryl Sterling, senior industry analyst at the Yankee Group, said retail distribution of two-way services this year may be a bit premature, given the relatively young age of today’s market.
“I don’t think its going to be a big seller this year,” he said. “It’s too early in the sales cycle. People will have to see more of them before they will buy. Even if they had got the device out in the first quarter this year, I still don’t think they would have had enough to be a major product by Christmas. It’s not going to be a Furby.”
PageMart’s Buckenham said price is a factor as well. The first devices will likely cost more than most consumers are willing to pay, he said.
“There’s no question that two-way is going to be a huge opportunity. But it’s still at an early stage in terms of device pricing.”
If anything, some believe the delay may in fact work to carriers’ benefit, allowing time for the remote access market to mature, a space where two-way is expected to excel. Buckenham said various efforts made by the Internet community toward extending e-mail and instant messaging services beyond the desktop are creating greater awareness of two-way paging’s possibilities.
“We’re seeing a tremendous interest with connecting the Internet with your pocket, and a two-way pager is going to be an important part of that,” he said. “The Internet is finally starting to reach out to get off the desktop and into the pocket. PageMart’s strategy is to be the connecting piece.”
The Yankee Group’s Sterling agreed. “By the time this is made available, people will be much more familiar with what you can get on it,” he said. “Awareness is on the upswing. The market is developing. Being on the bleeding edge isn’t always the best thing.”
