What we see today as third-generation technology has nothing to do with what 3G will be, predicts Carlos Hirsch of Iusacell, a CDMA cellular operator and PCS licensee in Mexico.
“3G is now presented as the big bandwidths’ hero-2 Megabits per second Internet browsing. And that, in the mobile terminal, has no sense,” he said.
“The typical 3G application I would foresee is taking your phone and saying, `Book for me a ticket to Acapulco (for) this Friday at 4 p.m.’ Just that. Short transactions, like checking a balance, asking a price. Giving commands.”
Hirsch expects to see intelligent short transactions that users will be able to make on their terminals through a connection to the Internet, but with the Internet being more widely used than it is today.
Like many of his colleagues around the world, Hirsch has been surprised by the higher-than-expected growth rate of the Internet in the past few years. He ranks the Internet with voice compression and digital technology as key drivers for continued wireless growth.
“[The Internet] has broken the relation between distance and cost,” said Hirsch. “We have heard about [this relationship breaking] for 30 years, but it’s only with Internet that we can (actually) see it happening. There’s lots of complementary technologies, but they’re not revolutionary. (The) Internet, voice compression and digital wireless are so.”
CDMA technology and everything related to voice compression have enabled cost reductions in the wireless industry, added Hirsch.
“There had been a couple of previous jumps that enabled cost reductions: the idea of having cells and the arrival of digital technology. Those, combined with voice compression, are what makes cellular technology available to everyone.”
On a more basic level is the cost of terminal equipment. Looking back 20 years, the cost per minute for airtime hasn’t changed all that much, he noted. In comparison, Hirsch explained, a terminal perhaps was priced at US$5,000 then, whereas it can cost US$50 now.
“The technology that has pushed this all is electronics-semiconductors-which reflects on the cost of the terminal equipment. What has allowed that huge reduction of 100 times is in the user’s hand, not in the air,” Hirsch said.-Felipe Gonz lez Carrasco in Mexico City
