Is paging dead?
The wireless industry has been debating that unflattering statement for a few years now. When you look at recent statistics and stories in RCR and from around the world via our sister publication, Global Wireless, things ain’t all that rosy for paging.
Several domestic paging stocks have been trading in the “cents” range recently, and internationally, the picture also looks pretty bleak. In India, Hong Kong and Japan, paging carriers have been hurt by stiff competition from new wireless services. In Europe, the European Commission financed a report that said paging would be practically extinct in a few years. Latin American paging operators say they are under pressure to reinvent the industry.
From reading these reports, it seems easy to nod and sadly say, yes, paging indeed is dying, albeit in some cases, a slow death.
But I still cannot bring myself to believe there is no longer any use for a simple one-way messaging product in the United States. Yes, we have phones that now offer messaging. But you know what? People turn off phones. They do. You do. I do. Even with my new fancy-schmancy phone, I am aware of battery life. I hoard battery life. I was taught that time and time again during my analog phone days. It’s easy to recharge the battery now, but I still hate having to remember to recharge it.
Paging is simple. It’s cheap. It gets the job done.
Quite a few people-51 million in the United States-agree there is a need for paging service, although a number of those customers have moved from plain old vanilla paging to “messaging” service.
Going forward, the paging world is likely to face even stiffer competition as two-way data services roll out on a number of fronts. It’s no longer just the paging carriers offering service, it’s AMSC and BellSouth Wireless Data. It’s Sprint PCS and Nextel providing new ways for customers to get data.
Paging isn’t dead, but the revolution is here-now.
Combinations like No. 1 carrier PageNet with No. 2 carrier Arch will keep basic paging service alive, even as the new and improved company gains enough mass and decreases its debt to tackle the fledgling two-way market.
The sad side to all this is there probably is only room for a few paging companies to own networks.
Welcome to the world of long distance.
