The European paging industry is in the midst of another makeover as it struggles to compete with mobile telephony as a mass-market communications medium. Devices that can send and receive e-mail, link to security systems and encrypt messages are being developed, while network operators increasingly are offering both prepaid and subscription tariff packages.
However, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that no matter what the industry does, it is only a matter of time before it wilts in the face of competition from cellular services. Growth in mobile-phone use shows no sign of slowing. Cellular penetration rates across Western Europe on average are more than 25 percent, and some markets predict 40 percent to 50 percent within 12 months. In this climate, it is hard to get excited about paging, which has the image of being the poor man’s mobile phone.
However, manufacturers and operators never were likely to simply disregard the massive investment they have made in paging technology and infrastructure, and the gloomy view of a cellular-dominated world is not entirely shared by those keen to promote paging-or “wireless messaging” as it is now often described-as a technology with a future.
Andrew Crawford, a consultant in British Telecom’s paging services division, believes paging certainly has a future. “Perhaps the greatest advantage of paging over cellular messaging via SMS (short message service) is its ability to send a message to multiple recipients. While this can be done via SMS, it is much cheaper to use paging technology and the messages can be sent much more rapidly.”
There also are the traditional values that paging offers in terms of discretion and message-screening, he noted.
“We find a great number of corporate customers who use the device to screen their calls. They all carry mobile phones, but with the phone it is hard to know whether a call is really important, whereas the pager device can be used to filter calls from outside a selected group.”
Operators have also been thinking about how they can exploit the advantages of paging, and direct marketing is considered a suitable application. “Shops, cinemas and restaurants could use the multiple-messaging service to broadcast details of special sales, special screenings or menus to regular or potential customers,” said Crawford. “This allows them to target information at a specific audience.”
Jacques Couvas, chairman of the European Public Paging Association (EPPA), also reckons wireless messaging can survive. He claims there are more than 10 million paging subscribers in Europe, although growth rates have fallen from 50 percent in 1997 to 30 percent in 1998 and about 10 percent in 1999, according to EPPA figures.
“Paging still seems to have a market,” said Couvas. “SMS will dominate the messaging market, but there are users who prefer to have a device that allows them to prioritize their messages. I don’t think we can compete with cellular on Internet browsing because bandwidth is limited, but when it comes to text messaging, paging has a chance to survive.
“European operators such as Digicall in Switzerland are signing up corporate accounts who are using paging as a means of getting e-mail to staff (members) while they move around the building or outside. There are also network-capacity issues with SMS that are not a problem on paging networks. And while SMS messages can take several minutes to arrive, paging messages are delivered in seconds. Paging is still a more robust method of sending messages.”
European roaming could further strengthen the position of paging, as could the interactive capabilities being developed by manufacturers such as Motorola in Europe and operators such as BellSouth Mobile Data in the United States, which offers a two-way messaging service that can be integrated into corporate e-mail systems.
Jack McDonnell, messaging solutions manager at Motorola Europe, suggested the European wireless messaging market is catching up with the United States, although customers in Europe are still waiting for two-way messaging devices. However, he believes the onus is not only on the manufacturers to develop these devices.
“The allocation of frequency spectrum on a harmonized basis across Europe is essential if paging is to become economically viable, and operators also need to commit to rolling out extensive networks. But while these elements are yet to be put in place, we see clear evidence from the increase in SMS activity that consumers want messaging services.
“We think that two-way paging in Europe, especially in the big markets such as the [United Kingdom], could be a competitive service because it requires a very small amount of frequency spectrum and, therefore, a modest investment. But it is not just the operators and manufacturers who can create demand for two-way paging; we need to build strategic partnerships with software-development companies.”
Couvas is convinced paging will survive for the next couple of years, but agreed with McDonnell that it needs to become a Europe-wide industry. “I don’t think paging will survive if it is fragmented like it is today, on a national basis. If we want to attract new players, we need to look at Europe as a single market.”
