Much has been made of the battle for supremacy of the operating system for the wireless data terminal market. With the number of Internet-enabled wireless devices expected to outnumber PC Internet connections within a few years, people are asking, “What is going to be the Microsoft/Windows combination for the wireless world: Palm with Palm OS, Windows with CE or Symbian with EPOC?”
However, with the shift in focus from client-based computing to the Internet-and wireless Internet-does the operating system really matter? One of the reasons the Macintosh computer is making a comeback is because more people are buying PCs to access the Internet rather than using client-based software. This is going to be even more of a reality with wireless Internet, where the emphasis is on connectivity and portability, rather than computing power.
To continue with the Macintosh analogy, another reason the iMac has been popular is because of the way it looks. This is another factor that also rings true in the handheld market, where mobile phones are very much a fashion accessory. The reason Palm has done so well has less to do with the capabilities of the operating system and more to do with the form of the devices. Ask the owners of Palm Vs, the market leader, why they chose their devices, and the chances are that size does matter. Wireless devices tend to be bought as a personal choice and must fit in with all aspects of a user’s lifestyle.
But the corporate market is likely to be the fastest-growing over the next few years. This is particularly true for high-end devices that will need a more capable operating system, as opposed to mass market WAP-enabled terminals using proprietary operating systems. In this area, Microsoft likely will take considerable market share, being the choice of many information technology managers seeking to develop a seamless corporate information system. However, the fact that systems have become more open, making interoperability less of a problem, means the other players will not be completely squeezed out.
It is wrong to assume any one operating system will dominate the handheld market as Windows did with the desktop. Wireless Internet terminals will come in many shapes and forms and will be purchased by a greater diversity of users. The market share of each operating system will be determined by that of the terminal manufacturer that supplies it, and each one has significant backers.
In reality, most users will not be concerned about what operating system they are using, be it Palm, CE, Symbian or something else. The point of control of the wireless Internet market will not be the operating system, or even the microbrowser, but who owns the user’s home page.
Dan Ridsdale is a U.S.-based analyst at Ovum, specializing in enhanced network services, and is co-author of Ovum’s new report, “Personal Assistant Services: Strategies for Owning the Customer Interface.” He can be reached at dpr@ovum.com.
