China and CDMA technology have attempted marriage about as many times as Elizabeth Taylor.
Now it appears the Chinese government again has given the green light to China Unicom to deploy CDMA technology as quickly as possible. Naturally, vendors remain cautious. They’ve heard this before.
It’s perhaps the most confusing issue in the wireless industry today. CDMA technology’s deployment prospects have been riddled with politics ranging from paperwork issues to government trade issues. The Chinese government earlier this year gave approval to Unicom to deploy CDMA technology as a World Trade Organization concession. Plans were quickly halted.
Indications from CDMA vendors this summer were that Unicom was moving ahead with GSM technology in markets it had once reserved for CDMA technology. Unicom has signed a number of GSM deals in the past months. During its initial public offering road show earlier this year, Unicom made no mention of plans for CDMA technology.
Last week, however, published reports indicate Wu Jichuan, minister of information industry, blamed Chinese state media reports for the confusion and said narrowband CDMA is a necessity for the Chinese market.
“It turned out to be a combination of everything,” Terry Yen, director of Asia Pacific programs with the CDMA Development Group, said of the holdup. “Unicom was distracted with the IPO, and there was a resource drain as well. CDMA is a political football and there were some issues that needed to be resolved. It’s no coincidence that WTO was resolved at the same time. All the pieces fell together in July and August.”
Scott Erickson, vice president of global marketing with Lucent Technologies Inc., who is based in Hong Kong, said signs from Unicom in recent weeks have indicated a renewed commitment to deploying CDMA technology.
“They (Unicom) have requested us to keep working with them and local partners on CDMA,” said Erickson. “Their intent was to deploy current generation CDMA … There was enough indication that this would happen before the end of this year.”
Yen believes Unicom could make announcements by November and deploy the technology as early as January. Unicom has been working on merging its operations with Great Wall Networks, an operator owned by the People’s Liberation Army that runs four experimental CDMA networks. The Chinese government several times in the past has ordered this merger, but the PLA has resisted and continued to expand its CDMA networks. Today, it appears that merger plans are proceeding, giving Unicom a clearer path down the CDMA road, say vendors in China.
A delegation of Chinese MII officials, including the vice minister, in recent weeks toured the United States and Canada, meeting with CDMA carriers Verizon Wireless and Bell Mobility as well as a number of CDMA manufacturers. Vendors and carriers said the delegation’s purpose was to discuss migration from Interim Standard-95A to 1XRTT technology, the third-generation migration path for CDMA carriers. Unicom officials were in Japan and Korea last week sharing ideas for CDMA deployment in Japan, Yen said.
This week, the MII and the CDG will hold a 3G round table to discuss CDMA technology. TDMA advocates will hold one the same week.
Analysts have criticized plans for IS-95A deployments in China because third-generation technology is around the corner. To combat this, Unicom may deploy what is dubbed IS-95A+, which will be advertised as more 3G ready and includes technology enhancements such as SIM card capability, network-based prepaid technology and international roaming readiness, say sources close to Unicom. Unicom plans to quickly migrate to 1X technology, which requires software upgrades and channel card changes to today’s IS-95 technology.
Vendors are crossing their fingers.
