CHICAGO-One of the first commercial deployments of EDGE technology could be in Mexico next year based on presentations and interviews at the PCIA GlobalXchange event. Mexico’s largest wireless carrier, Telcel, plans to roll out commercial EDGE service in the country’s three largest cities in 2001.
Carlos Guzman, Strategis Group analyst, said Telcel has a 75-percent market share in Mexico City, launched WAP service this month and will begin EDGE service next year.
AT&T Wireless Services Inc. plans to begin commercial EDGE service in some markets in the first half of 2001, with full service following in 2002 and 2003.
According to Richard Downes, director of the Latin American and Caribbean region for the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium, Movilnet in Venezuela and Canada’s Rogers AT&T also have committed to EDGE rollouts.
Considering no European operators have announced EDGE plans-most are opting instead to upgrade directly to UMTS networks from GPRS technology-the North and South American commitments from operators are essential for the UWCC and TDMA carriers. The larger the number of EDGE adopters, the better economies of scale, roaming and interoperability issues will be for TDMA carriers.
Latin America was the fastest-growing TDMA market in the second quarter of 2000 based on figures released by the UWCC. Fifteen of the 20 operators in the region’s largest market, Brazil, for example, have TDMA networks.
“In the Western Hemisphere, TDMA leads, so there will be big economies of scale,” said Chris Pearson, executive vice president of the UWCC, citing future announcements from manufacturers regarding EDGE technology, although he could not discuss specifics.
UWCC officials also predict several European operators will implement EDGE equipment.
“Prior to the auctions, nobody was going to say they didn’t need new spectrum,” said Sheila Mickool, UWCC president, noting the fact that EDGE technology can be deployed without huge amounts of additional new frequencies.
However, some European market watchers have a different view. Risto Perttunen, director of McKinsey & Co. based in Helsinki, Finland, noted that because of the huge costs of 3G licenses in Europe and the pressure operators face to quickly build out 3G networks, EDGE will not be heavily deployed in Europe.
“We do not already know anyone who has started to discuss EDGE,” Perttunen said.
“Everyone with a 3G license is going from GPRS to UMTS,” said Paul Bishop, market development director of Cap Gemini Ernst & Young. “For those that don’t win licenses, EDGE is an option” to offer third-generation-like services without additional spectrum.
“It’s the only place for them (carriers without 3G licenses) to go next,” added Bishop.
AT&T executives said they expect EDGE handsets to be available in the second half of 2001 from Ericsson and Nokia and possibly Motorola and Panasonic, with dual-mode EDGE and UMTS handsets following in 2002.
Chinese briefing
In the Asian market, UWCC and CDMA Development Group officials traveled to Beijing last week to discuss 3G options with representatives from the Ministry of Information and Industry, along with officials from China Unicom and China Mobile-the two wireless operators in China-and Chinese manufacturers. The meeting was organized through the U.S. Embassy in China.
Mickool said the Chinese were very interested to learn more about the interoperability between GSM and EDGE technologies. GSM technology is dominantly deployed in China. UWCC officials said they also saw a presentation on TDS-CDMA technology, the 3G technology developed jointly by the Chinese government and Siemens AG.
Meeting participant Umesh Amin, director of new technology and planning for AT&T Wireless’ Technology Development Group and a member of the UWCC board of governors, said TDS-CDMA is not interoperable with other 3G protocols and will most likely be implemented as a means for the Chinese to leapfrog landline service, which is not well developed in areas of the country. He said TDS-CDMA technology is similar to fixed-wireless telephony.
Terry Yen, Asia Pacific director for CDG, said his organization’s meeting with the Chinese addressed concerns they have regarding the 3G migration path of CDMA, because there are limited CDMA deployments in the country to date. “If they spend a few billion dollars on a (CDMA) network, they are concerned about evolution,” said Yen. “That was the theme of the discussion.”
Yen said MII and China Unicom officials have committed to deploying a nationwide narrowband CDMA network. “The issue is when,” he added.
China has had on-again off-again plans for CDMA technology deployment for several years.
