DUBLIN, Ireland-Despite the positive noises coming from the industry body for paging and messaging service providers in Europe, falling subscriber numbers and service provider rationalization indicate paging might be about to fulfill the prophesies of doom first voiced when cellular penetration began to grow exponentially in the mid-1990s.
During the latter part of the last decade, paging seemed to be coping with the dominance of GSM technology in Europe. Many groups still seemed to prefer the pager, subscriber numbers showed a healthy upward curve, and service providers spoke of new services and devices that would consolidate their place in the mobile messaging market.
But the almost complete destruction of the youth paging market and significant user number decreases around Europe suggest paging is finally feeling the effects of competition from the mobile phone. Even the organization responsible for promoting the interests of paging and messaging service providers in Europe has dropped the word “paging” from its title, changing from the Public Paging Association to the Mobile Messaging Association last March.
Jacques Couvas, the association’s president, does not accept that paging has become a dirty word, but admitted there have been some worrying developments during the past 12 months to 18 months. “Last year there was some panic, because when companies stopped advertising for CPP (calling party pays) services, there was a very rapid decline in the number of subscribers,” Couvas said. “In January 1999, we had 10.3 million users in Europe and about one-third of those were CPP, but without any advertising or commercial activities, that number dropped quickly.”
Accurate information on the current number of paging subscribers is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, which is generally not a good sign. Even Couvas said information is hard to come by, but estimates there are currently about 7.5 million users in Europe. The number of operators has fallen by a similar percentage-about 25 percent-during the last two years, although much of that decrease is attributed to mergers, not business failures.
Simon Holmes, head of marketing at leading U.K. carrier Page One, said he believes mobile operators have decimated the consumer market. “The introduction of prepaid cellular services has had a massive impact, particularly on CPP services,” commented Holmes. “The attraction of the mobile phone with its two-way functionality was just too strong.”
However, in common with the head of the Mobile Messaging Association, he feels there is potential in the business-to-business market.
He pointed out many operators that have gone out of business were focused only on the consumer market and predicted further consolidation among operators. “On the positive side, there is a much greater collective spirit among operators,” he said. “Many have realized that sharing information and working together is the best way forward.”
Couvas agreed that the potential for paging is worth carriers persevering. “Unified messaging is where the industry is moving,” he said. “We were encouraged because SMS (short message service) has demonstrated people want to use mobile and wireless messaging, so we thought we should fight for paging technology.”
He claimed immediacy and reliability are still advantages for paging over cellular, and network congestion means short messages can take much longer to arrive than paged messages. “There is still room for paging. And I hope there will one day be intelligent devices available that will accommodate all the various mobile messaging services,” Couvas added.
So it appears the future success of paging will depend on next-generation mobile-device manufacturers considering paging functionality a vital feature on their handsets. No doubt service providers are lobbying hard among the vendor community.
