Alan Greenspan’s move to cut interest rates is cause for concern. The economy has slowed. Telecom stocks generally are still in the dumper and third-generation technology is going to be delayed.
What can the wireless industry smile about?
My family. No one in my family is an early adopter of technology. Not a Palm Pilot in the bunch. But when the Andersons met in South Dakota over New Year’s for a little relaxation and skiing, I was surprised at how the family has embraced wireless technology. The Andersons have gone wireless! While we aren’t the most diverse group you’ll ever meet, in some ways we are a nice cross-section of the mass market. Some of us live in the city, some in the suburbs, some in small towns and others in the country.
Based on a few days with these mass-market members, I have some sure bets for 2001:
1. Wireless games. Over the holidays, I have put together two puzzles, played countless games of “Who wants to be a millionaire?” and “Clue” on the PC, and endless board games. And I don’t really like playing games. But games are addictive. Your flight is delayed four hours? A quick game of Scrabble via the wireless Internet will help the time pass for you and rack up minutes for wireless carriers. Carriers need to decipher the best way to charge for games so people are encouraged to play them-and so carriers make money.
2. Voice/roaming/network buildout. Along with directions for how to get to our Black Hills cabin was a list of cell-phone numbers of family members. I called the North Dakota contingent to check if they were having any weather-related problems, my brother called me to say his crew was running late and my sister called my niece to check on her progress. You give people tools and they will use them.
However, ubiquitous network coverage is still a fantasy. I dropped three times on a major interstate highway in Wyoming on my way back to Denver. (I know, I know, it’s Wyoming. But cellular carriers have had 16 years to build out their networks!)
3. Prepaid. My dirt-poor, working-her-way-through-college niece has a cell phone. And no one suggested it was a luxury she should drop. Why? It’s prepaid so she can’t accumulate too much debt and we got a lot of comfort knowing she could contact someone if her car breaks down while she is driving across Montana. (You’ll notice I am not holding my breath for E911 service.)
4. Telematics. My sister got a new Chevy Suburban a few months ago and thinks the OnStar system is pretty cool. She didn’t get the Suburban because of the OnStar system; She got the OnStar system because it came with the Suburban. Nevertheless, she plans to switch wireless carriers to take full advantage of it.
5. Bundling. My brother uses Qwest’s bundled plan for Internet access, regular telephony and his wireless phone. He complained about the cost, but likes the simplicity of one bill. I doubt he’ll churn because the sum is greater than the parts.
6. Youth. Another niece kept in contact with her beau over the holidays even though several hundred miles separated them. Generations X, Y and Z will choose to stay connected and that bodes well for wireless.
