LITCHFIELD PARK, Ariz.-Amid the scorched desert ground abutting the lush greens of golf courses, the future of the wireless Internet was the topic of discussion in the small community of Litchfield Park, Ariz., where industry consultant Andrew Seybold held his 2001 Summit 4Mobility. And while actual wireless coverage in the area was in short supply, the conference attempted to connect all participants with answers to their wireless Internet strategies.
The biggest topic of discussion at the conference was the overriding consensus that the United States, once thought of as woefully behind the rest of the world in next-generation wireless services, actually will lead Europe in the race to implement higher-speed networks.
Seybold noted that news from the recent 3GSM World Congress in Cannes, France, indicated the deployment of 2.5G networks in Europe, using GPRS technology, was well behind schedule. Initial plans called for networks to be rolled out by the end of 2001, but current thinking has the rollout date pushed back at least a year.
Many of the conference members who attended the Cannes show backed up Seybold, noting European carriers were being slowed down in the deployment of 2.5G services due to the overwhelming financial burdens placed upon them from recent European spectrum auctions.
In comparison, U.S.-based CDMA carriers, including Sprint PCS and Verizon Wireless, are thought to have solid plans to roll out network trials of cdma2000 1x technology, with data rates of up to 153 kilobits per second, by the end of this year.
“CDMA carriers are taking the lead in high-speed wireless networks,” Seybold said. “From what we are hearing from Europe, GPRS will be delayed until early next year, with UMTS not coming until 2004. Our thinking a month ago was that Europe would lead the U.S. in rolling out high-speed wireless. But now, it is the U.S.-based CDMA carriers that will lead the way.”
Seybold noted that even when European operators roll out GPRS networks, data rates will only come in at around 62 kbps, well below cdma2000 1x’s 153 kbps, and will not be backward compatible with older GSM networks.
While Sprint PCS and Verizon Wireless were praised for their next-generation wireless plans, Seybold was not as impressed with AT&T Wireless Services’ future migration plans. Combining technology ideas from AT&T’s recent deal with NTT DoCoMo and its plans to overlay its current TDMA-based network with a GSM-based network, AT&T Wireless’ network will have to handle five different technologies by the time it rolls out W-CDMA/UMTS services in 2003.
Those networks include 5 voice and 4 data, encompassing legacy applications of its analog voice/CDPD data network; TDMA voice; GSM/GPRS; EDGE 3G and W-CDMA/UMTS. Seybold predicted AT&T would have to eliminate its TDMA network, and doubted the potential of EDGE even being introduced.
Fellow U.S.-based operator Nextel Communications Inc. was complimented for its recent decision to implement a cdma2000 1x network overlay to its iDEN network as it moves to next-generation services.
“Nextel’s decision was a smart move and makes it a viable stock again,” said Andrew Seybold Group consultant Barney Dewey.
Plenty of attention at the conference also was paid to NTT DoCoMo’s i-mode service, which was hailed by all as the standard to which other wireless Internet services will be compared. The most common compliment paid to i-mode was its ability to deliver compelling consumer services and applications over conventional networks at speeds of 9.6 kbps. This led many to comment that the problem with wireless Internet adoption in the United States and Europe was more of an applications problem than a network capacity problem.
Another advantage to i-mode was its pricing plan, presenting the carrier with $25 of additional revenue per user per month. Current wireless Internet offerings are lucky if they increase average revenue per user by $1 per month.
Device manufacturers also were vocal in the network discussions, as the industry attempts to find the device that will provide the best user experience for services. The personal digital assistant manufacturers were well represented by Palm Inc., Handspring and Compaq Corp., which were on hand to show off the advantages of their PDAs.
“We want to carpet bomb the world with Palm OS handhelds,” said Carl Yankowski, chief executive officer of Palm, in his keynote address.
Seybold threw his support behind the PDA manufacturers, noting “PDAs will lead the wireless Internet in North America and eventually Europe.”
Attention at the conference also was paid to the demise of WAP. Initially, Seybold and Dewey proclaimed WAP was dead, with Seybold noting its failure to specify a common device standard, garner developer support and produce a viable business model.
WAP supporters rallied to their cause, noting WAP provided an early option for wirelessly enabling Internet content and that WAP 2.0 would solve many of the problems that have arisen from WAP 1.0.
Even with its potential to fix earlier problems, Seybold said WAP 2.0’s delay until at least 2003 would give plenty of time for competition to come into the market with solutions.
Tom Wheeler, president of the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association, also made an appearance at the conference. Wheeler spoke at the “Spectrum: Asphalt of the Wireless Highway” session, where he pointed out the United States’ lack of sound spectrum policy in relation to the rest of the world.
“We don’t have to hang our heads, but we need more spectrum,” Wheeler said. “There has been a 1,292-percent increase in the minutes of use over wireless networks since 1993, but only a 27-percent increase in available spectrum.”
Wheeler also made a pitch for getting rid of current spectrum-cap laws, an idea that was not shared by some of the smaller wireless operators in attendance.
Wheeler noted that Japan and the United Kingdom both had spectrum caps of 100 megahertz per carrier, with France having no limit to the amount of spectrum a carrier could control. In comparison, the United States allows each wireless operator 45 megahertz of spectrum in each urban market.
“What we need is a spectrum plan,” Wheeler said. “First deal with spectrum caps, and let the Justice Department decide if competition is affected.”
