Keep it basic and make the money.
Market research firm Telecompetition Inc. says while operators and vendors are mired in the tightening economic landscape of Western Europe, they seem to be underestimating the oasis of the future: developing and emerging economies.
The research says that this routinely ignored market is demonstrating a growth rate for mobile data that will outstrip current market leaders by a margin of 2-1 between now and 2010.
The study, which indicates that the big companies have turned a blind eye to these markets because of their preoccupation with anywhere, anytime communications, says the developing world is contented with “the more fundamental need of basic communications service.”
“Faster than most estimates to date, developing and emerging economies have been highly motivated to build mobile infrastructure as quickly as possible,” said Telecompetition president and chief executive officer Eileen Healy. “Inadequate communications infrastructure has become widely recognized as the major inhibitor to success in most world markets, including emerging economies.”
In mobile voice, the research firm expects revenues to jump from $76.2 billion in 2000 to $230 billion in 2010. Within the same period, it expects international roaming to leap from $297 million to $3.4 billion, mobile data from $101 billion to $127.9 billion.
The number of subscribers, according to the survey, will rise from 259.1 million in 2001 to 1.2 billion in 2010 for mobile voice. For mobile data, it will rise from 1 million to 729 million within the same period. For international roaming, the number of subscribers will jump from 392 million to 6.8 billion.
For mobile data, the main money-spinners are China, Brazil, India, Philippines, Venezuela, Poland and Malaysia. Big mobile voice potential markets include China, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, Argentina, Turkey and South Africa.
“The most successful infrastructure and handset manufacturers in 10 years will be those that have started early to build relationships in developing and emerging countries,” remarked Eileen Healy. “At the same time, mobile providers in developed countries must successfully migrate existing networks and sophisticated users from existing voice to data technologies and applications.”
China, which leads the pack, is expected to ramp up revenue from mobile data from 36.8 million in 2001 to $40.8 billion in 2010. Brazil is projected to rise from $100,000 in 2001 to $13 billion, India from $300,000 to $12.5 billion, Mexico from nothing to $4.9 billion and Russia from $100,000 to $4.8 billion. Argentina will jump from nothing in 2001 to $3.7 billion, Philippines from 33.7 to $2.3 billion and Turkey from nothing to $2.9 billion. The research firm defines mobile data as non-voice categories identified by the UMTS Forum provided via technologies such as SMS, 3G, CDMA2000, WAP, GPRS, and EDGE.
For voice, China is the estimated leader with revenue expected to leap from $27 billion in 2001 to $65.5 billion in 2010. Brazil is second with estimated revenue of $10.3 billion in 2001 and $27.3 billion in 2010. Within the same period, India’s revenue is expected to rise from $1.4 billion to $25 billion, Mexico from $5.3 billion to $9 billion and Russia from $1.3 billion to $8 billion.
Telecompetition conducted the survey in 160 countries and four world regions including Latin America and “all significant developing and emerging economies.”
The company said “the 729 million total mobile data subscribers in the developing and emerging economies will be nearly equal that of the developed countries. The penetration rates for all mobile services in many less developed countries will triple by 2010, at the same time those in developed economies will see a decline in subscriber growth, while penetration rates reach maximum saturation.”
