WELLESLEY, Mass.-The Mobile Confidence Index developed by Mobile Ecosystem projects the wireless industry downturn will continue through at least the first half of this year.
The index tracks 13 leading wireless indicators across several categories, including financial, industry performance, marketing, advertising, employment and innovation metrics. The index tracks data going back to January 1997, when it reached its lowest point of 80. The all-time high, reached in September 2000, was 238. At the end of December, the index stood at 112.
For 2002, the index was essentially flat, “an indication that the industry might have hit bottom,” said Mark Lowenstein, managing director of Mobile Ecosystem and formerly a wireless telecom research analyst for The Yankee Group.
“We expect the ‘wireless buzz’ and advertising metrics, which propped up the index during much of 2002, to tail off following a major fourth-quarter push. Wireless data is not yet a catalyst, although handset sales and replacement rates are trending upward.”
