CAMBRIDGE, U.K.-Third-generation wireless technologies will give mobile operators another push toward fixed-line replacement, according to new research from Analysys Research.
Assuming 3G offers wide-area and in-building coverage, it will be a key enabler to fixed/mobile substitution, Analysys concluded, but usage patterns and carrier strategies will also be factors.
Analysys expects just a 1-percent decline in fixed voice channels between 2004 and 2006, citing the need for fixed lines to support Internet access. However, as alternative Internet solutions develop, the group expects a 10-percent per-year decline from 2006 to 2009 for fixed voice. By 2009, the group expects 50 percent of voice call minutes to be generated by mobile phones.
Strategies adopted by both mobile and fixed voice service providers will affect the rate of substitution going forward, according to Analysys. “Affordable bundled tariffs with generous allocations of inclusive minutes have proved successful in the U.S.A. and, offered sensibly by operators, a similar approach could stimulate usage in Europe,” explained Mark Heath, co-author of the report. “There is considerable scope to improve prepaid tariffs to facilitate heavier usage, and prepaid users can be better encouraged to migrate to postpaid contracts.”
In addition, “operators with both fixed and mobile operations must take a holistic view of their overall business to avoid unnecessary price competition between their fixed and mobile divisions,” added Heath.
