Opinions are not hard to come by in the ongoing debate between proponents of GSM and CDMA technologies. It’s easy to get caught up in questions about which technology is better, which one is growing faster, which one will take over the world. But a more interesting set of questions is being raised as CDMA450 increasingly makes its way in emerging markets around the world.
It’s easy to understand why. With its low cost of deployment and wide coverage area, CDMA450 is being deployed by carriers in Africa, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, South America, Eastern Europe and even Northern Europe.
But in Sweden, home to GSM, CDMA450 is not a natural choice. Indeed, the Swedish governmental authority that monitors electronic communications, the Post-och telestyrelsen, or Swedish National Post and Telecom Agency, said that in order to ensure that there are no adverse effects for Swedish consumers, it will not allow third-generation operators Hi3G, Tele 2/Telia and Vodafone Group plc to roll out CDMA450 technology. The agency said the 3G operators should complete their 3G rollouts using UMTS technology and that because the operators haven’t covered the 8.9 million people they initially promised to cover, the agency said it may issue fines sometime next year.
However, in March, Nordisk Mobiltelefon A.B. won a spectrum auction in Sweden and was awarded a 15-year license to operate CDMA in the 450 MHz band.
According to the license rules, it has to start service by July 1, 2007, and cover at least 80 percent of the surface area of each county in Sweden. The carrier plans to roll out service in Sweden in 2006, and already has started 1x/1xEV-DO pilot service in Norway. The operator also received a license to operate on the 450 MHz band in Denmark.
With licenses in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, Nordisk said it will be the only pan-Scandinavian operator and the only one that will cover most of the surface area. The company charges that in Sweden, when the UMTS networks are fully built out, they are only expected to cover about 30 percent of the surface area. Nordisk said its 1xEV-DO network plan to cover more than 90 percent of the surface area.
So while the Swedish government is allowing Nordisk to roll out its CDMA450 network, the government is not allowing the existing licenses for UMTS to be changed.
In China, CDMA450 gets weird too.
“The Chinese government only allows CDMA450 in Tibet, but there are reports of 1.5 million unofficial users,” said Vadim Beliavski, chairman of the International 450 Association. “The Chinese market is bigger than all the other markets combined.” Beliavski predicts companies like Nokia Corp. will make CDMA450 products if China approves the standard.
In Eastern Europe, there are many CDMA450 carriers enjoying a robust market. Next year, and in 2007, when Nordisk begins offering CDMA450 in Northern Europe, the UMTS carriers will find out which technology consumers prefer.
“Competition is healthy,” said George Mansho, head of International Business Development at CDMA Development Group. “This technology is a sleeping giant. This market is too big to ignore.”
Meanwhile, CDMA2000, which has been around much longer, continues to reach milestones, according to its lobbying group. The CDG Group announced last week that there are more than 200 million CDMA2000 subscribers in the world and about 18 million 1x EV-DO users. The group said that more than 10 percent of wireless users worldwide access 3G CDMA2000 services, and about 70 percent of CDMA subscribers use 3G technology.
“Looking at the first five years of deployment, you can see it is expanding faster than any other technology, including GSM and W-CDMA, and it has a broader reach, serving both developed and developing regions,” said Perry LaForge, executive director of the group.
Qualcomm should be happy with the CDG report, right?
“We support CDMA450 in Europe,” said Jeremy James, senior director of corporate communications at Qualcomm Inc. “But our strategic focus in Europe is on W-CDMA. We support what the operators want to do, and we will help deploy what they want.”
However, James went on to say that it just doesn’t make sense to go with GSM450, as L.M. Ericsson and Nokia Corp. recently said they would.
But where there is a technological stumbling block, there is always a vendor ready with a solution.
“Eventually, there may be a market for devices that roam between 450 and W-CDMA,” said James.
