FRAMINGHAM, Mass.—This year could mark the beginning of important changes for the U.S. wireless industry, according to new research from IDC.
Last year was a stellar year for the industry, with about 21.8 million new subscribers activating service, propelling the industry to more than 200 million users and greater than 70-percent penetration, said IDC. In addition, data average revenue per user levels crossed the 10-percent of total ARPU threshold.
But 2006 could begin a trend of slowing subscriber growth and continued voice ARPU erosion that IDC predicts could send total voice revenue into a decline by 2008 and 2009.
“Total voice service revenue declines late in the forecast period will jolt an industry accustomed to 25 years of voice revenue growth and further emphasize the importance of data services to the future of the industry,” said Scott Ellison, program director of Wireless and Mobile Communications at IDC. “With the wireless subscriber market approaching saturation, driving further adoption usage of data services will be critical to maintaining total ARPU and service growth in light of continuing voice ARPU erosion.”
The wireless industry faces factors including slowing total subscriber growth, increasing competition from mobile virtual network operators, further consolidation, and continued voice ARPU erosion, said IDC.
