OYSTER BAY, N.Y.—Consumers will flock to mobile television services in the next few years, with most subscribers tuning into wireless broadcast offerings, according to two new studies.
More than half a billion users are expected to subscribe to mobile TV services by 2011, up from only 6.4 million at the end of 2005, ABI Research forecasts. In-Stat echoed ABI’s report, predicting 102 million users worldwide will access mobile video through wireless broadcasts as opposed to cellular networks.
Only 3.4 million consumers watch mobile TV broadcasts currently, In-Stat said.
“Recognizing that using cellular networks to deliver content that millions want to watch simultaneously requires much greater bandwidth than is currently available, carriers are turning to mobile TV broadcast networks, which have a much lower cost per bit for video delivery,” according to In-Stat.
But the news wasn’t all good for the three mobile broadcast networks that will soon come online in the United States. While the future for Qualcomm Inc.’s MediaFlo looks bright—thanks largely to Verizon Wireless’ commitment to use the network—the market likely cannot support both Crown Castle International Corp.’s Modeo and Aloha Partners LP’s Hiwire, ABI said.
“MediaFlo has been built (to deliver mobile TV) from the ground up, and will almost certainly be among the winners in the U.S.,” said Ken Hyers, an ABI principal analyst. “Modeo and Hiwire are competing for the business of just three major operators, and one of them will fail. Modeo plans to be faster to market, and if it signs a major operator quickly, its battle is half won. On the other hand, in Hiwire’s favor is its large (12 MHz) and valuable swath of spectrum with more favorable characteristics than Modeo’s.”
Qualcomm is investing $800 million in its mobile TV network; Crown Castle and Aloha Partners are each spending about $500 million to build out their offerings. MediaFlo is expected to come online late this year while the two other competitors will come to market next year.
