Controversial competing technologies. A spectrum auction that brings in billions of dollars. Am I flashing back to 1995?
No, but a few noteworthy announcements in recent weeks are reminiscent of spectrum auctions and subsequent buildouts for second- and third-generation services. If history repeats itself, look for a lot of chaos in the wireless industry as vendors and carriers scramble to build faster networks and gather customers-pushing both the technology and customer base before the market is ready.
“Let the Wild Rumpus Begin!” to quote from “Where the Wild things Are.”
- First, Sprint Nextel Corp. commits to CDMA2000 1x Revision A deployments later this year. Then the operator announces plans to build its WiMAX network commercially in 2007 and 2008. (The carrier is under a government mandate to cover 15 million people using its 2.5 GHz spectrum by 2009.)
- Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile USA Inc. (which is testing a Wi-Fi-cellular offering) are bidding up big bucks in Auction 66. Cingular Wireless L.L.C. is staying in the game, too. Indeed, Alltel Corp. is the only major carrier not bidding for extra spectrum.
- Meantime, perhaps feeling hurt by some global carriers replacing CDMA equipment with GSM, the CDMA Development Group announced last week it had achieved significant milestones in setting parameters for CDMA Rev. B and C.
- Amid its technology loss at Sprint Nextel, Qualcomm Inc. more or less promises that Verizon Wireless will offer MediaFlo mobile TV way before Sprint Nextel even builds its WiMAX network. Qualcomm’s comments underscore the chipmaker’s view that Sprint Nextel’s multimedia plans for its WiMAX network stand as competition to MediaFlo.
Whew.
LTE proponents must be going crazy. Long-term evolution is the fourth-generation iteration on the GSM/UMTS/HSDPA technology roadmap. Many of the European players and vendors that are planning to deploy this technology are still licking wounds left over from the continent’s crazy bidding for 3G spectrum and subsequent push to deploy multibillion-dollar networks. These networks have yet to yield the fruits of that investment.
Thus, LTE players had supported a sane technology schedule-with a 2010 to 2012 timeframe-giving carriers and vendors time to digest current deployments before racing to next-gen technology.
But then Sprint Nextel played the “time-to-market” card with its WiMAX technology choice. And in wireless-even when it’s not a wise choice-time to market seems to trump all else.
