The math is simple: mobile devices are requiring more power at a rate greater than improvements in current battery output and longevity can provide it.
There’s nothing earth-shattering about the essential proposition, of course-mention the topic of battery life in handsets and colleagues eagerly bombard you with anecdotes about how running video, music or an e-mail session temporarily transformed their beloved handset into a doorstop.
Road warriors often employ a two-device strategy: one handset serves for voice, while a data-centric device-a smart phone or laptop-does the rest. But laptops face similar limits as well. User options such as screen dimming, turning off certain applications or the ancient trick of turning the device off can prolong battery life, but run counter to the industry promise of constant connectivity.
Portable battery output and life is, of course, a basic, perennial consumer electronics challenge. But with mobile handsets becoming the most ubiquitous CE device in history and the wireless industry’s revenue model slowly shifting from voice to data, it is an acute challenge for the entire ecosystem, from network operators to handset vendors to component suppliers to software developers.
IMS Research estimates that with new features getting packed into handsets, power demand is increasing by 20 percent to 30 percent each year, but incremental improvements in current-generation batteries are only helping by 5 percent to 10 percent each year. Compounding the challenge is the evolution to small, thin handsets; crowded components already are on a strict diet for size and energy consumption.
IMS Research’s Bill Morelli said a “chokepoint” is coming, possibly with the advent of mobile television. The research firm also pointed out that extensible operating systems, found in smart phones-also a recent, high-growth sector of the business-are power-hungry. One basic continuum: the more an application promises revenue, the more power it typically requires.
Motorola Inc. technical officers said last week, however, that a multi-pronged research effort on component and application efficiency and battery power would bear fruit, making the “chokepoint” characterization a bit pessimistic.
Morelli said that if consumers are forced to choose between preserving power for crucial voice calls and spending power to enjoy entertainment or perform enterprise chores, network operators’ average revenue per user is at risk of erosion. Multimedia-related advertising also could be in jeopardy. Analysys reported last week that network operators in the United States will draw 13 percent of their revenue, or about $5.2 billion, from non-voice services this year. That percentage of revenue is expected to nearly double in five years.
Handset vendors and their component suppliers are working to avoid a chokepoint scenario and maintain commercial success. They are pursuing near-term solutions by developing more power-efficient components and applications, incremental improvements in current battery technology and more convenient, portable recharging devices. The longer-term solution is to find a next-generation battery technology that produces greater power for longer run time with a convenient recharging method.
“There’s no magic bullet that’s going to fix this,” Morelli said. “We’re looking at incremental improvements.”
According to Morelli, the current generation of lithium-ion batteries came online in 1991, while the recent and ongoing buildout of 3G networks and multimedia service offerings has brought lithium-ion technology’s limits into sharp focus.
Incremental improvements in power efficiency have been driven, in part, by the development of so-called ultra low-cost handsets, which drove chip makers to develop energy-efficient, lower-cost “single chip” solutions, Morelli said. Indeed, component efficiency is a major battlefront for chip vendors.
Power supply
One chip in mobile phones is dedicated to the power management of various functions and, according to iSuppli Corp., demand is so strong it is fragmenting the market. Nearly half of the 248 semiconductor firms it tracks provide power management devices, iSuppli reported, and demand continues to attract new contenders-despite the fact that power-management chips accounted for only about 9 percent, or $22 billion, in global chip consumption last year. The clear market leaders in power management chips-STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments Inc.-have only 9 percent and 7 percent market share, respectively.
From the component vendor’s perspective, “requirements have changed radically and battery life is a concern,” said Jeff Baer, who works in business development for the Wi-Fi division at Broadcom Corp.
“Our challenge is to deliver performance while limiting battery drain,” Baer said. “Expectations are growing while physical limits are shrinking. The expectation is that battery-powered devices will have a day or two of run time.”
Broadcom, which makes baseband and RF chips, but not power-management chips, is focusing on reducing power draw on active functions while also improving standby performance in which a device checks on a network connection or other function in a quick, efficient manner and then goes “back to sleep.” Reducing chip size, cost and power draw, while improving performance are factors that by nature pull in different directions, Baer said. Power efficiency is prominent in Broadcom’s announcement this week of its new ultra-low power Wi-Fi chip.
“We’re never done,” he added. “Devices keep getting smaller.”
Rob Shaddock, chief technical officer at Motorola’s mobile devices division, agreed that multimedia functionality and style issues made the need to resolve power issues “more acute,” but projected confidence that incremental improvements in current technology would meet short-term challenges. One trend, he said, was to move multimedia functionality from power-draining software programs to “logic” embedded in a multimedia processor or baseband chip.
“We’re crossing an interesting boundary,” Shaddock said. “We used to do everything in software because the gates on chips were expensive. Now, it’s cheaper to do things in `logic’ rather than in software and memory.”
Kevin Cole, senior director of device technology in Motorola’s mobile devices division, said that lithium-ion technology’s annual improvements might be doubled to 15 percent each year through advancements in nanotechnology-the interaction of smaller particles of energy-generating materials should create more energy-and innovative materials.
Meanwhile, Shaddock said, consumer research will help identify how much run time is optimal and how large a battery can get before consumers balk.
Are fuel cells an answer?
While handset vendors and component suppliers furiously whittle away at their parts, cramming more gizmos into smaller boxes, numerous parties are sequestered in the laboratory to develop next-generation fuel cells. NTT DoCoMo Inc. has partnered with Aquafairy Co. to produce a fuel cell-powered recharger as well as fuel cells for its 3G handsets. Motorola has invested in Tekion Inc., a developer of hybrid fuel cell and battery technology. And Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. in May announced a partnership with MTI Microfuel Cells Inc.
Fuel cells, which would have to be recharged with a fluid component, present great promise, but have drawn mixed prognoses for when they might be commercially available. While some players suggest commercialization as early as 2008, IMS’ Morelli said 2010 would be more likely. Motorola’s Shaddock said the latter is more accurate.
“Fuel cells are promising candidates, but they’re `a journey,”‘ Shaddock said.
Juan Beccera, a vice president for business development at MTI Microfuel, said that its current work for the U.S. military would be leveraged for commercial applications. Its work with Samsung is focused initially on producing a fuel cell-powered recharging device, then high-value markets tolerant of a relatively large fuel cell and, finally, embedding them in mobile phones. Safety and distribution challenges are being addressed concurrently.
Some sense of commercial availability for embedded fuel cells in mobile phones-which Beccera is reluctant to predict-may be gleaned from one remark:
“Next year is the year of testing,” he commented.
