Editor’s Note: Welcome our Monday feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry. In the coming weeks look for columns from Strategy Analytics’ Chris Ambrosio, Ovum’s Roger Entner and M:Metrics’ Seamus McAteer. Click here to read past Analyst Angle columns.
I like lists. They’re easy to read. They’re easy to write. They virtually pop off the page. I originally considered making this month’s column one big list of random thoughts (back when channeling Michael Stipe circa “It’s The End of The World As We Know It”). Then I remembered that I owe you something on the connection between wireless networks and wine. So, let’s look forward for a minute and think about 2007.
While most of us simply like to drink wine now and then, the wine media (including about a million podcasters) spends the end of the year conjecturing on the quality of this year’s vintage: how good will the wine be based on the quantity of grapes harvested, sugar level, initial reports, etc. Of course, everybody has their own opinion and, not surprisingly, most that come out of the industry are rosy.
Crystal-ball gazing, however, isn’t limited to the wine world. Sports fans start talking about the World Series before opening day. Film critics anoint next year’s Oscar contenders in the spring. And, in the wireless world, we all want to know what new technologies will appear-or gain traction-in the New Year. I can’t claim to have all the answers, but in honor of ’07 here are seven predictions for what we’ll be talking about over the next 12 months . and one that’s more of a question.
. Mesh Fall Out-Not. Muni WiFi is an undeniably hot market. It’s also a very crowded market on the vendor side. This makes it one of those markets where everyone is just waiting for the suppliers to start dropping like flies. Well, it probably won’t be happening in 2007. Yes, you could easily count a dozen vendors chasing an uncertain opportunity. However, that uncertainty (i.e., the possibility of a huge opportunity) will encourage VCs, boards and chief strategy officers to keep R&D and sales efforts alive . at least for one more year.
. WiMAX Consolidation. Like muni WiFi, the WiMAX market is over-populated; think the proverbial “crazy cat lady’s house.” Unlike muni WiFi, it’s got even more players-small and large-and major WiMAX networks will require much more than access nodes: devices, BSS/OSS solutions, transport, IMS in the core. Many of the smaller vendors now targeting WiMAX have been around for years. Some are 4th or 5th round of funding. Not all will be around for the next holiday season.
. CDMA Femtocells. I’ve said it. Others have said it. Femtocells are a warming topic today. They’re likely to be a hot topic next year. Yet, while there are lots of femtocell vendors in the market (five announced, at last count), none are targeting the CDMA market. This isn’t particularly surprising given the larger global GSM/UMTS opportunity. Of course, to the extent that the femtocell model is compelling, CDMA operators want in on it too, and they won’t want to be too far behind their GSM-track brethren. Nobody has stepped up the plate, but my money is on DO-specialist Airvana to help make it real (they’ve even got IMS assets to support a core integration story).
. CDMA Survival. On the topic of CDMA2000, a big story this year centered on the brouhaha about CDMA losing ground to GSM/UMTS. In a game of bluster-tag, the GSA noted how operators are giving up on CDMA in favor of GSM/UMTS . followed by the CDG noting that GSM operators are rolling out CDMA. Nobody in their right mind should expect to see CDMA wither away in the next few years (major operators have just spent lots of money on network upgrades and I still have two years left on my contract!). The real question, however, is how scale and momentum will impact planned upgrades to 3G (today) and beyond 3G (LTE vs. EV-DO rev. C).
. LTE & DORC Demos. Last year, vendors began talking about LTE and EV-DO rev. C (I like to call it DORC). In part, these 3G evolutions are an obvious reaction to the momentum behind WiMAX. In part, today’s 3G vendors just want customers and prospects to know what comes next. Prototypes have been promised for next year. Unlike optimistic promises in years past, they will almost assuredly come to pass; the R&D is in place and the threat from WiMAX has not abated. In particular, it will be very important for the CDMA industry to prove its mettle since, beyond 3G, a flat IP core makes it easy for CDMA operators to move to a technology like WiMAX or LTE while leveraging a common core. Just ask Sprint.
. IMS Apps, Really. At its core, IMS is about applications: rolling them out, managing them and leveraging a common set of enablers (location, presence, etc.). For the past two years, however, IMS has been less about application rollout and more about network development. In part, you can blame this on the need to germinate applications and garner device support. Regardless, operators want to start making money with (not just spending money on) their IMS networks while preparing to compete with aggressive cable and fixed-line telcos. Based on this year’s network tests, video sharing is likely to be one of the first mainstream consumer applications.
. 3GPP Evolution-More Than Just LTE. Years before we all start talking about them, the 3GPP-driven by operators and vendors-starts work on new technologies. Consider LTE, IMS, HSPA and multicast video. Of course, once vendors get the technologies built, they want to talk about them. Again, LTE is high on everyone’s lists of hot topics. System Architecture Evolution (SAE) and Evolved EDGE should make it into the mainstream in 2007. SAE-essentially, an access-agnostic packet-based mobile core-goes hand in hand with LTE, but the application of all-IP networking for current 3G networks is bound to get attention. Evolved EDGE is about squeezing as much life as possible from existing networks. Vendors have been talking about it for a while, but with deployments possible in 2008, demos and messaging needs to begin in 2007. With promises of HSDA-line spectral efficiencies, the interest is out there.
. Operators Find Their Voice? Traditionally, vendors have driven the pace and makeup of technology evolutions. The WiMAX Forum and Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) initiatives both promised to change that. In the Forum, operator participation has famously impacted certification plans. NGMN, in turn, promises to get a consensus on what major operators want from their 4G networks. The shift is intriguing-logical, even. With standards nearly set and networks being built, will input continue to flow? If so, will it matter?
If I were smart, I’d ask you to throw this column away as soon as you’ve read it so that you can’t hold me to these predictions next year. But, like a so-so bottle of wine, even bad predictions are a good topic of discussion (though both may leave you with a headache). I hope you enjoyed them and look forward to any comments you’d like to share.
Questions or comments about this column? Please e-mail Peter at pjarich@currentanalysis.com or RCR Wireless News at rcrwebhelp@crain.com.
