Moving beyond the keypad: Stubborn consumers, not technology, remain hurdle

The keypad on the mobile handset is due for an extreme makeover.
Like the television program, fashion-that age-old tyrant-and the need to update it is one fundamental driver of change. After all, the current paradigm for input technologies-think wireline, touch-tone phone-is already decades old.
Another driver is real estate-getting rid of the keypad will free up room for more flexible handset designs and, as everyone knows, differentiation rules. Moreover, like everything else in the universe, there’s the bottom line and network operators’ drive for greater subscriber revenues. The thinking appears to be, in so many words: give consumers a sleek device with a convenient button that leads to a revenue-producing function and everyone’s fat and happy.
Between innovative keypad technologies, dedicated music player buttons and other innovations already on the market, this change is upon us. Check out Nokia Corp.’s so-called “lipstick” phone, model 7380, for a glance at the future.
Ironically, according to a recent ARCchart Ltd. study that explores the topic, the technology for this extreme makeover is proven and available today. Consumer acceptance, rather than technological barriers, poses the main hurdle to adoption of a new paradigm. Once again, that quirky, human consumer is the linchpin.
Creeping incrementalism, rather than radical, rapid change, will likely be the theme of this shift, according to Bill Ray, analyst with ARCchart and lead author of the study, “Handset Input Interface Methods and Technologies: 2007-2011.” In its five-year forecast, ARCchart sees keypads-on 94 percent of devices shipped last year-dropping to 80 percent of devices by 2011. The even more ubiquitous, five-way navigation device-typically, joysticks or joypads with left, right, up, down and enter modes-will give way more rapidly, ARCchart contends, replaced by capacitance detection and fingerprint sensors. (Where current buttons react to pressure, “capacitance detection” refers to a device’s sensitivity to the conductivity of a human finger.)
This glacial rate of change is not for lack of trying.
“All vendors are eagerly exploring the use of ‘control surfaces,'” said Ray. “They see the entire surface of the mobile phone as a potential interface point.”
And the recalcitrant consumer?
“Getting rid of the 12-key approach will be tough,” Ray acknowledged. “It can be done. You make a compelling product so cool that they must have it. Then they will suffer the learning curve.”
The status quo is untenable, buffeted by two contradictory currents, according to Ray. Feature sets are expanding, while consumer demand for ease-of-use will not abate.
Thus ARCchart set out to examine the role and possible replacement of keypads, QWERTY keyboards, touch screens, joysticks and jog dials. The firm looked at recent innovations in keypad input, predictive text, voice-activated functions, navigation technology, “haptics”- in which the device vibrates in response to commands to replace the lights or beeps associated with touching buttons-and fingerprint sensors. A number of options that seem to work well technically were branded, for now, “dead ends” and “science fiction” based on users’ “apathy.” (“Who moved my keypad?” might be the report’s subtitle.)
One upside to the overall paradigm shift is that it results in fewer moving parts, which should boost device reliability and lower costs for manufacturers. The ultimate end result of the shift may be to eliminate the device altogether, though embedding communications functionality in clothing is “great science fiction,” Ray said. Similarly, the notion of haptics is a dead end, according to the ARCchart study. Apparently, those pesky consumers find it a delight at first, rapidly followed by advanced ennui.
Thus, the proverbial white-smocked scientists studying concepts such as capacitance detection and haptics may well resolve the issue by simply placing humans under the microscope. As in the television program on makeovers, mobile-phone users exhibit an initial reluctance to change before they finally “get it.”