Expectations vs. reality

You know all those early adopters everybody in this industry likes to target? Even they don’t see their phones as little multimedia devices.
A recent study from interactive marketing firm Avenue A/Razorfish found that 64% of “connected consumers” in the United States never use their phones to check news, sports or weather. Less than a third of users have listened to music on their handsets. Only 24% have watched mobile video of any kind, and only 42% check e-mail from their phones.
And we’re not exactly talking about the “Matlock” set here. The 475 respondents were over the age of 20, spent more than $200 online per year, had broadband access and visited social networking Web sites. More than half subscribed to RSS feeds, and a whopping 91% relied on Web-based news more than television sources. Ninety-five percent had watched on online video in the past three months, and 71% had used the Internet to watch a television show.
“While the adoption of Web 2.0 features has clearly entered the mainstream, the usage of mobile data services certainly has not,” Avenue A/Razorfish wrote in its 104-page report, which received little attention in the wireless trade press. “Our survey, released on the heels of Apple’s iPhone launch, finds the U.S. mobile data services market still nascent.”
There are plenty of reasons for that, of course. Handset manufacturers are only now beginning to think beyond QWERTY keyboards and archaic 12-key designs. Consumers who pay for unlimited Internet access at home are terrified of being charged a fortune for venturing into the mobile Web. And many Internet sites are still unusable on feature phones, requiring eons to download.
But while the industry works to address those issues, marketers would be wise to keep their hopes for wireless in check. Web 2.0 features like Flash and Ajax make for appealing technologies on PCs, but they’re sure to wreak havoc on most handsets.
And even the most compelling mobile ads-particularly those placed off carrier decks-will draw a very limited number of eyeballs.
It’s certainly plausible that the mobile Web will eventually outgrow the traditional Internet, exploding into an advertising business of unprecedented scale. But in terms of maturity, the wireless Web is roughly where the fixed-line Internet was 10 years ago.
Adjust your expectations accordingly.