The text-to-vote cliffhanger

Text-to-vote campaigns are changing TV viewing habits dramatically, and TV programming is pushing the popularity of text campaigns.
And so it was that I watched “Dancing with the Stars” last Tuesday. For the uninitiated, Wayne Newton got kicked off the contest. America voted correctly. If we trust the marketplace, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban should be voted off tonight. But I digress.
Today, text-to-vote campaigns are conducted two ways: Either they have a large carrier sponsor with voting restricted to only customers of that sponsoring carrier; or they have open voting without a major carrier backer.
I don’t think that it will continue that way as the industry evolves. Ultimately, even the metrics by which a viewer is measured-and advertising sold against-could change. AT&T Mobility users can text in their votes for “Dancing with the Stars,” as well as to the text-to-vote granddaddy of them all, “American Idol.” The rest of the world has to use a landline or laptop to vote. AT&T Mobility ponied up an estimated $10 million to $15 million for the right for the “Dancing with the Stars” sponsorship. The “American Idol” sponsorship is an estimated $50 million. More than 600 million votes were cast in last season’s “American Idol.” (Granted, the majority of them likely weren’t through handsets, but a buck’s a buck.)
On the other hand, “Deal or No Deal” is not sponsored by a major carrier, so all carriers can get a piece of the texting revenue pie in that show, but NBC doesn’t get the large carrier sponsorship revenue. Instead, premium text fees apply.
Will AT&T eventually allow other cellular customers to text to vote on “American Idol?” Perhaps the carrier will sign a separate deal with Sprint Nextel, for example, where Sprint Nextel customers have to pay $1.50, and Sprint Nextel gets to share revenues (perhaps not equally)?
Or will customers rebel against the 99-cent premium for text-to-vote privileges? Will text-to-vote campaigns become advertising supported in their own right? Will metrics for counting viewers change?
Think of this: A successful show like “American Idol” not only gains revenue from its sponsors, but the text-to-vote viewers actually subsidize the show for the TV producer, the network and the carrier-whoever gets a piece of that premium text. Indeed, the text-to-vote viewer is much more valuable to the producer/network/carrier than the person who doesn’t vote or votes online. To the advertiser just putting a 30-second spot in between the TV show, those eyeballs are equal, but to the participants/sponsors of the show, all eyeballs are not equal.