Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry. In the coming weeks look for columns from Current Analysis’ Avi Greengart, Jupiter Research’s Julie Ask and more.
Well, it’s getting to that time of year again-the holidays. It used to be that stores waited until after Thanksgiving to go all ‘red and green’ on us. But last week my local Starbucks decorated for the holidays and all of the staff were wearing red shirts and Santa hats. I did not feel very festive, despite the fact that my kids have published their wish lists for the holidays-in the case of my son, the “list” is actually a binder. He browses the Web for things he NEEDS and then prints out the product description-details, store, price-just in case we have problems identifying exactly what he would like. And so that he can easily change his mind, he uses a 3-hole binder to easily add and remove pages. The true winner out of this scenario is, of course, HP-the number of ink cartridges my kids manage to go through is truly frightening.
Numerous electronic devices are on the kids’ lists this year. So the other day, I started a conversation about which mobile phones are cool this year: an interesting discussion as it turns out.
I have noticed that my kids and their schoolmates are usually ahead of major trends-they seem to amplify what is happening in the larger consumer market. No phone (or other device for that matter) is just OK-it is either “way cool” or “stinks.” On a scale of 1 to 10, phones are rated either 1 or 10-there are no 5s and 6s in this pre-teen world.
Getting a clear reason for a winning or losing design is somewhat difficult. For example, the new Motorola Razr2 is rated a zero by my son and his friends. Why? Too thin, yeah, like, not different, like, from the first, like, well it just looks the same, like, and, yeah, well everyone has one, and like, the girls have pink Razrs, so how cool is that, duh. You get the idea.
Ask a market analyst about their opinion on a new handset and you will get concise reasons for its likely success or failure, usually referencing the user interface, the radio, the availability of specific technologies and features and the overall aesthetics. Talk to the people who are really making the buying decision (the kids) and you get a conscious stream of thought, interspersed with opinion on the personalities of class mates and teachers, updates on who is “seeing” who, and the usual “like” and “yeah.” The scary thing is that the preteens and teens are increasingly making purchase decisions for the entire family on handsets-in our survey of seniors, 10% said that the selection of the handset was a group decision or involved a grandchild. When it comes to a phone for the children themselves, 30% of parents said their child would chose the phone or it would be a group decision. Make no mistake, today’s 10 and 12 year olds are true consumers.
So, which handsets are winners and losers, according to the fifth and seventh graders in Austin, Texas? In no particular order or with attention to particular OEMs or carriers, the opinions are:
–Motorola Razr was cool when it came out a few years ago. My son was very impressed when his friend got one-it was blue. All I ever found out about that phone was that it was blue-that was enough for my then-third grade son. That same friend is now on his third Razr in two years. The problem for the Razr was that they became very popular-now EVERYONE has one, Dad.
–Razr2 is seen as a simple copy of the original without moving the game forward. My kids do like the TV ads, but question why anyone would want the new version-after all, EVERYONE has the original and the 2 looks no different.
–Motorola Krzr is still considered cool, especially in platinum or blue. The fact it is narrower is a plus and, of course, it has a music player. This is my son’s favorite phone-I think this is because they are relatively rare.
–LG Chocolate has been very popular, especially with my daughter’s seventh grade friends. In fact, she describes her classmates by terms like ‘she has mint’ or ‘she’s got strawberry.’ Any adult within earshot is, of course, supposed to know that the flavors refer to the color of the LG handset.
–LG Prada is way cool. When I asked my son to list handsets he and his friends wanted, the list started with the Prada and ended with the iPhone. I wonder if his opinion would change if he knew Prada made handbags and shoes.
–Apple iPhone is the mama, the beginning and the end of cool, the phone to be seen with in the fifth and seventh grade. Despite the cost, kids have identified the iPhone as the design of the year. Obviously, the pricing is higher than other handsets and the monthly rate plans are higher, but this is justified by listing all of the things it does. Since Apple reduced the price and introduced the iPod Touch, the iPhone has become easier for the kids to justify. And just in case you think I am some type of nut, there is no way my kids are getting an iPhone this holiday season. They are dreaming.
My kids offer an accelerated view of the mobile handset market-they seem to be able to condense macro trends into a shorter period. The iPhone was a hit from the start and I suspect will continue to be popular. But there is also the danger of it becoming too common and falling into the popularity trap of the Razr. To get the attention of the pre-teen, each handset generation has to be truly innovative and offer something not seen before. Design and aesthetics seem to matter more than technology-my kids have never commented on the processor in the iPhone.
I enjoy my profession and the trends we get to identify and follow. While I spend my day discussing HSPA, EV-DO Rev. A, WiMAX, operating systems, standby time, and bandwidth, I have realized that the hardest job in the mobile industry is that of mobile handset designer-rather than worry about adults, industry analysts, Wall Street, investors, press and pundits, these designers have to pass the toughest test of all-appealing to and pleasing today’s 10 and 12 year olds. Scary.
Questions or comments about this column? Please e-mail Iain at iain@igr-inc.com or RCR Wireless News at rcrwebhelp@crain.com.