Analyst Angle: The year in review. 2017

Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry. In the coming weeks look for columns from Current Analysis’ Avi Greengart, Jupiter Research’s Julie Ask and more.
As another year draws to a close, just about every analyst worth their salt is rolling out reviews of the year gone or predictions for next year. Rather than follow the crowd, how about a tongue-in-cheek look at what happened in 2017? Please e-mail me any comments relating to accuracy on Jan 1st, 2018.
2017 was a landmark for the wireless and mobile industry, mainly because the last of the old copper landlines in the U.S. was finally decommissioned. While the copper is still in the ground in some rural communities, the telcos no longer provide service and those customers have now been converted to VoIP on either their satellite or cable TV services. The event was marked by a small story on page 3 of the WSJ, which included an interview with a 20-year-old college sophomore who said “What is a landline?”
Mobile penetration by population remained steady at 99.2% throughout the year, out of a total U.S. population of 330 million people. The last 2.6 million people who do not use cellular devices are considerable unreachable by the industry mainly due to their incarceration in maximum security or mental health institutions, or the fact they have just been born and are unable to focus.
‘Captive audience’
Since prisons started to allow cellphones in 2012, the mobile industry was able to set up kiosks inside the prisons. CTIA President Mike Dano said that we have a “captive audience.” Dano also stated that the industry was working “actively” on mobile solutions for newborns, including instant notification to the parent of the need for a diaper change.
Mobile device penetration in the U.S. exceeded 300% in 2017, matching the growth in Europe but still lagging Japan (650% and counting) and South Korea. With 900 million devices on the various networks, the industry is looking toward the next generation of technology-6G-but is having problems defining exactly what will be supported. Google co-founder and world’s-richest-guy Sergey Brin stated “all we know is we need more bandwidth-the current 500 Mbps networks will not support our future ad growth.”
AT&T and Verizafone each announced they had reached the 100-million-subscriber and 300-million-device thresholds. SNAT (Sprint Nextel Alltel T-Mobile) is close behind with 90 million customers. Verizafone said that the company expects continued device growth: “Our next goal is to connect every sprinkler system in America to the most utilized network in the nation. The mobile opportunities in grass are significant and customer care costs are very low.”
Competition in the mobile device OEMs continued to intensify as the number of connected devices hit 8 billion worldwide, supporting 5 billion users. With the average selling price of a mobile handset falling below $5 for the first time and device shipments of 3.7 billion per year, profit margins for the OEMs are further eroding.
Nok-in-yer
A Finnish developer announced that they had successfully implanted the first wireless connections in two teenagers. Tentatively called the Nok-in-yer, developers announced the trial to telepathically connect the two teens was a success but they were still trying to decipher what the 16 year olds were saying to each other. “The problem is not connectivity but communication,” said the lead scientist. Parents of teenagers around the world said “Duh!”
U.S. President Gates and VP Jobs continued to develop the IT infrastructure of the government as planned with every government employee now equipped with mobile voice, Web and video connectivity. After successfully gaining the presidency in 2012 in their come-from-way-behind campaign, President Jobs and VP Gates switched roles for their second term to “show a true bipartisan spirit and that different OS (operating styles) can work together.”
Senator Chelsea Clinton
Following the successful trial of GoogleGov in 2015 and 2016, the OGA (Open Government Alliance) was fully deployed in 2017, allowing each U.S. citizen to have direct and instant access to their member of Congress on demand. Several members of the Senate continued their opposition to the system, questioning how they were expected to govern effectively if their constituents were continually aware of what they were doing.
Senator Chelsea Clinton said, “The real-time mobile video monitoring is a disaster.”
Apple CEO Gore, one of the main supporters of the OGA initiative, said, “Congress needs to wake up to reality and realize that they really do have to answer each e-mail and IM, and that the people can see them typing. Or not.”
Have a safe and happy holiday season.
Questions or comments about this column? Please e-mail Iain at iain@igr-inc.com or RCR Wireless News at rcrwebhelp@crain.com.