Global GSM subscriber growth is expected to slow from 22% year-over-year in 2006 and 2007 to 14% in 2008 and 2009, according to a new forecast from ABI Research.
The slowdown will mainly be due to increased migration to UMTS 3G technologies, which experienced 83% growth year-over-year during 2006 and 2007. ABI said it expects GSM subscriber figures to begin showing negative growth starting in 2013 as GSM becomes less attractive than cheaper 3G services. Mobile WiMAX and 4G networks will also provide competition for subscribers, said ABI.
“Within the GSM subscriber population, EDGE is expected to maintain a high growth rate following increased deployments in emerging markets,” says Asia-Pacific vice president Jake Saunders. “Nonetheless, GSM (including EDGE and GPRS) is still expected to have the highest number of subscribers of all mobile technologies, with a 70% global market share in 2013 (dropping from 78% in 2007.)”
W-CDMA is expected to increase market share from about 5% in 2007 to about 14% in 2013, said ABI. The CDMAone and iDEN subscriber bases, which have been diminishing during the past five years, will have mostly given way to either GSM or CDMA2000 networks, predicts ABI.
GSM growth expected to slow through 2009
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