Analyst Angle: Intel’s MIDs use Linux to go after GPS systems first and iPhone next

Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry. In the coming weeks look for columns from Current Analysis’ Peter Jarich, NPD Group’s Ross Rubin, and more.
I was in China earlier this month at Intel’s Developer Forum in Shanghai and watched the birth of their Netbook and Mobile Internet Device (MID) platforms. It was somewhat ironic that the first Netbook to actually launch after the event was from HP and used a VIA processor but it was the MID class of device that I thought was really fascinating along with the fact that the most interesting device was from Lenovo who had done to Linux what Apple had done to BSD UNIX to create the MacOS.
The parents of the MID
The MID is a full on PC that is almost small enough to put into a pocket (well it will fit in most coat pockets but you’ll definitely know it is there). It’s earliest parent is the Portable Media Center (PMC) class of devices Microsoft brought to market nearly ten years ago which, while promising, are all but forgotten. Still, while they initially were larger than most would accept, they were great for movies and (as long as you didn’t jog with them) very nice for music with what were, for the time, massive capacity in the gigabyte range. They also had one of the best user interfaces Microsoft had ever created but lacked a video centric back end like iTunes and any serious form of sustained demand generation effort.
Portable GPS devices have started to level out but are still common in the market with the new big thing being devices like the Dash Express leading the way. The Dash showcases what is the most compelling part of a connected device like this with the ability to immediately go to the web to find locations and become aware of breaking traffic related news. Small, increasingly connected, with many exploring feature enhancements these GPS systems are also feeding into what the MID will become.
Finally the iPhone itself both in terms of communications and design has a major role to play in how this new platform will develop. But it isn’t just the iPhone device that will be the parent but the demand generation marketing, the user experience, and the connectivity to relevant on-line media services that will define the successful MID device. More important than the hardware the services, user experience, and marketing standards the iPhone is setting will factor into the winning device and not every device will win.
The generations of MID: The rise of personal Linux
The first generation which launched in Shanghai is more super-GPS/entertainment in its adolescent from than iPhone killer. While most will have cell phone capability built into them they will be too large in their current form for anyone that doesn’t have the need for a phone/personal defense weapon. As mentioned in the opening, the best of the devices was from Lenovo and it was based on a custom form of Linux which looked like a future version of the iPhone’s MacOS/UNIX based operating platform. To match Apple is hard enough, to potentially beat them is unheard of and to do this with Linux was thought to be impossible. We may have to move the impossible bar. I should point out the Aigo had what appeared to be the most interesting hardware implementation, smaller and it included a nice keyboard. It is interesting to note that all of the most interesting devices at the show ran Linux representing a break out opportunity for that platform.
While a bit large for a phone right now; they are the right size to be GPS systems and fit easily onto a windshield. In this mode they can be the entertainment source (music/videos/games), the mobile Internet device, and a better mobile email device (largely because they allow for a decent sized keyboard) than most smartphones. Many of the services that connected GPS products like the Dash Express above demonstrate will eventually migrate to this device over time and the target price points under $600, for what you get, don’t seem like such a bad deal.
But it is the next generation due towards the end of 2009 that start to get interesting. That’s when the size starts to drop dramatically and the devices start to approach the size of the iPhone which will have to grow to encompass the increasing battery requirements associated with 3G+ networks anyway. This is when we’ll begin to see the hardware influence of the iPhone in the products and as this class enters adolescence it will start to physically get leaner and more attractive. I would also expect the back end services to start to mature at this time as well and we’ll start exploring where else these devices could go (like into docking slots in cars for better integration).
However, it is the next phase that could be world changing. In the earlier phases the device, much like a child, is defined by its parents, but as it reaches maturity the training wheels come off and companies are suddenly free to imagine what else they could do with it. Could it be wearable? Could it be surgically attached? Could it aggressively modularized? Could it be something unlike anything we have ever seen?
Sometime between 2010 and 2015 we will see magic be born in this class and it will have a lot to do with what came before but even more to do with what is in the imaginations of designers and engineers who haven’t yet entered the workplace yet.
Imagining the future
Back when I worked for Disney they had a term “Imagineer” that they applied to those that could create magical things. I think this technology has the potential, when combined with someone who has true imagination, to become something new and different. I keep going back to the Gene Roddenberry the guy who created Star Trek and his idea, called a “Global” for the perfect personal device. Even though he is long gone, I think his imagination may have been right on. We just need the flexible display and few more creative minds.
Questions or comments about this column? Please e-mail Rob at renderle@enderlegroup.com or RCR Wireless News at rcrwebhelp@crain.com.