2010 to start with a bang

If published reports and incessant rumors are to be believed, the first 30 days of 2010 will see the introduction of Google Inc.’s latest attempt to infiltrate the mobile market as well as Apple Inc.’s long-awaited expansion of its device portfolio. Oh, and there is the largest consumer electronics trade show happening during the first week of the new year as well where everyone else is expected to roll out their high-tech offerings for the year.
(At this point, I want to note that I will not be initiating the Way-Back Time Machine and reliving the year that was. I realized after reading dozens of such articles that I don’t like having someone remind me of events that have happened less than 12 months ago. It makes it seem as though my mind really is fading, a thought I am trying to forget.)
Apple seeds
Moving onto our Cupertino, Calif.-based friends at Apple, all signs seem to be pointing to the company unveiling some sort of tablet/netbook/ginormous iPhone-type device by the end of January. Rumblings of this Transformer-like contraption have been clogging the Internet for months, with the groundswell this week hitting a crescendo.
Fingers are pointing to a device that will pack a 10-inch touchscreen with a user interface similar to the iPhone but targeting more multi-media friendly applications like video and e-books. While the device will likely include some sort of wide-area wireless technology, the crystal ball is a bit cloudy on those details. The safest bet is that similar to the iPhone, the new device will include support for AT&T Mobility’s 3G network. This would allow Apple to sell similar models overseas and increase the potential customer base.
However, AT&T Mobility’s very public issues with handling traffic from the millions of iPhones on its network could only worsen with a new device that is expected to be even friendlier to data-hungry applications.
Alternatives could include a partnership with T-Mobile USA Inc., which would allow Apple to keep the GSM-based 3G technology embedded in the device that would ease international sales. T-Mobile USA’s 3G network is also sporting higher-speed versions of the HSPA standard that AT&T Mobility is just now starting to roll out and also supports far fewer customers than its larger rival.
CDMA in play?
A riskier move would be for Apple to include a CDMA-based 3G technology in the device that would allow it to partner with Verizon Wireless (most likely) or Sprint Nextel Corp. (less likely) for domestic coverage. Verizon Wireless’ executives have been very vocal in flattering Apple and its product portfolio despite the anti-Apple slant of the company’s advertising. Of course, similar to the impact the iPhone has had on AT&T Mobility’s network, a flood of new Apple devices on Verizon Wireless’ network could prove a test for a carrier that stresses the quality of its network at every turn.
The inclusion of CDMA as its wide-area wireless technology of choice would also force Apple to manufacturer a different model for international sales, which could prove a difficult decision for a company like Apple that is concerned with the bottom line. This could be somewhat alleviated with the inclusion of a chipset like Qualcomm Inc.’s Gobi line that includes support for both CDMA- and GSM-based 3G technologies, but might come with a higher price tag.
This one goes to 11
And if Apple is in the mood to really take a risk, the company could bypass all the current 3G technologies and move straight to supporting either LTE or WiMAX. A move to LTE in partnership with Verizon Wireless’ plans to provide coverage using the technology to 120 million potential customer by the end of 2010 would be a swing for the fences sort of move that could limit initial adoption, but would future-proof the device with the latest and greatest wireless technology. LTE would also allow Apple to slowly begin rolling out the device to international markets where the technology is just now starting to show up on the scene as well as tap into AT&T Mobility’s domestic plans to begin rolling out LTE starting in 2011.
The WiMAX move would be a safer short-term, but riskier long-term play. Clearwire Corp. is already offering WiMAX service in a number of large markets across the country and is backed by a spectrum portfolio that is tailor made to support high-bandwidth multimedia applications. However, WiMAX deployments overseas are expected to trail LTE in the coming years with most deployments centered on developing countries. Not exactly the target market for a high-end consumer electronics device. Also, end-of-year 2010 expectations are that both Verizon Wireless’ LTE and Clearwire’s WiMAX networks will cover a similar 120 million pops domestically, with continued future expansion expected to favor the LTE camp.
<span class=cr_red)End around
Apple could also pick Option Z and bypass all of this technology hullabaloo by just including a USB port on the device and allowing customers to pick their own wide area wireless technology solution. This would open up the device to be sold in virtually every nook and cranny in the world and completely future-proof the device for any technology situation.
This solution seems almost too simple, thus is my pick.
Googling Google
As for the Google device, Internet rumor mongering seems to indicate that the HTC Corp.-built device will be named the Nexus and incorporate the latest and greatest version of Google’s Android platform. The platform is expected to be even newer than the 2.0 version powering the recently launched Motorola Inc. Droid and provide the purest Android experience.
Though blurry images of the device seem uninspired, the specs appear appealing. However, leaked pricing models seem to show Google’s latest attempt to upset the wireless industry’s current reliance on carrier subsidies backed by customer contracts will fall short. If the rumors are to be believed, the Nexus will be available unlocked directly from Google for a price north of $500. The technical specifications also indicate that the device’s 3G support will be limited to HSPA-based technology using the 1.7 GHz spectrum band that is currently the sole domain of T-Mobile USA Result: Customers can buy the device unlocked, but they will have to use T-Mobile USA service if they want 3G speeds.
Of course there is a solution to this. T-Mobile USA will also be selling the same device at a subsidized price of less than $200. Those customers choosing to save more than $300 on the price of the device will have to sign a two-year contract on a rate plan of at least $80 per month. Pricing models required for unlocked devices are still unknown.
Now I am sure there is a small percentage of the cellphone-buying public that will pay any price for a device that is unlocked, but my guess is that the remaining 98% of customers would be happy to pocket the $300 in savings off the top and call it good. (Though, I am also the guy who thinks “Hot Rod” is the greatest movie ever made.)