Report: AT&T Mobility to surpass Verizon Wireless as top carrier in Q2 2011

IE Market Research Corp. released a report predicting AT&T Mobility (T) would surpass Verizon Wireless (VZ) in total subscribers during the second quarter of 2011 and that the AT&T Mobility will post the highest earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization results among domestic operators by 2014.
The Canadian-based research firm said it expects the U.S. wireless market to top 365 million connections by the end of 2014 with AT&T Mobility securing an industry leading 127 million mobile subscriber connections or 34.8% market share. Verizon Wireless is forecast to count about 118.7 million customers or 32.5% market share at the end of 2014, while the firm said it expects Sprint Nextel Corp.’s (S) network to count 47.5 million customers and T-Mobile USA Inc. (DTEGY) to have around 35 million customers.
The domestic mobile industry ended 2009 with approximately 285 million subscribers, with the current number at around 290 million total customers.
Verizon Wireless is the largest operator with 92.1 million mobile customers and 99.8 million mobile “connections” on its network at the end of the second quarter. AT&T Mobility, fueled by continued strong growth from its exclusive arrangement offering Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone, had 90.130 million customers and 96.8 million connected devices on its network at the end of second quarter.
The two carriers have over the past several years distanced themselves from their rivals in becoming the dominant carriers in the domestic mobile space.
Sprint Nextel said it had 48.2 million customers at the end of the second quarter, while T-Mobile USA counted 33.5 million customers at mid-year.
IE Market Research also said it expects Verizon Wireless’ EBITDA margins to remain stable at about 45.5% through the end of 2011, but that it expects AT&T Mobility’s EBITDA margins to improve to 46% in 2014, which it expects to be the highest level of profitability among wireless carriers in that year. T-Mobile USA is expected to post EBITDA margins of between 33% and 34%.
The firm also forecasts that average revenues per user will remain stable in the $50 to $51 range through 2014, with AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless posting results around $50 and T-Mobile USA at $45 in 2014.