Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly feature, Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry.
I have always tried to give readers some perspectives on the coming year – trends that will be important and some insights coming around the bend which you can’t yet see. I am really not a prognosticator in that I don’t suggest that I have visions popping in my head. But, I do think this will be a major year for mobile and wireless. Here are some of the issues that will become important during the year.
OS wars. It’s too early to pick the winners in the mobile operating system wars. While there are too many mobile operating systems, it’s too early to see a shakeout because the smart phone market is going. And, growth always masks market corrections. Growth fuels opportunity.
There are over nine major mobile OS platforms that today all seem viable for the smart phone market: 1) Apple Inc.’s iOS; 2) Google Inc.’s Android; 3) Research In Motion Lt.’s BlackBerry (and its own migration to QNX OS); 4) Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Phone 7; 6) Nokia Corp.’s Symbian and 7) Meego (with Intel Corp.); 8) Hewlett-Packard Co.’s Palm webOS; and 9) a number of flavors of mobile Linux particularly in the Asian region. By 2020, I suspect that there will likely be something like three to four major mobile operating platforms with my guess that iOS, Android, Windows Phone and webOS may still be alive and kicking.
Of course, this has major implications for handset makers, particularly RIM and Nokia who are using their own smart phone operating system. That all may change in the next couple of years.
Smart phones. In either 2011 or 2012 (depending on who’s counting), smart phones will surpass both PC shipments and feature phone shipments (in the United States and Europe). This is a big deal because the focus by the entire wireless ecosystem will be on smart phones. By 2020, feature phones will be a small minority as manufacturers (including Apple) will have smart phones with price points under $100 (with a two-year commitment at a wireless operator). Both Android and Apple platforms will continue to expand with Apple moving away from exclusive operator relationships and Android expanding into tablets. I’d love to see HP’s Palm unit re-enter the smart phone race with an exciting new product based on webOS.
Smart phone app services. While we have seen a gigantic growth in the number of apps built for smart phones (well over 500,000), you’ll see the next big growth happen in services – where the user gets access to proprietary content or is provided a service for a monthly subscription fee beyond the application itself (which likely will be given away free). Such examples include multi-player online mobile gaming, stock services and information alerts and music streaming. Pandora is a good example, and I expect that Apple will have a streaming service available this year. In fact, they should consider renaming iTunes to iMedia since it will become a hub for the distribution of rich media on PCs, Macs, iPhones and, perhaps, all smart phones. You’ll finally be able to either rent (temporary local use), own (permanent local use) or just rent (stream remote) content.
Smart phone app search. As I mentioned last week, one of the big new areas in mobile will be app search inside mobile app stores. This will offer beneficial services beyond looking up apps by categories (which helps). Personal profiles will be input to assist in the app search process. This is an area ripe for innovation.
Tablets. It’s easy to notice that tablets are becoming very popular. I believe tablets will form the “three legs of the mobile stool” in which we have: 1) a notebook for creating information (Microsoft Office) and doing serious message management (e.g. via Outlook); 2) a smart phone in which to talk and do quick reviews; and 3) tablets which review, think and do more thorough on-the-go messaging.
Tablet apps. Just as with the smart phone creating app stores, watch for tablets to create app stores that are more focused on the tablet environment. You already see this with publishing apps for the iPad that are designed for the tablet not the iPhone. I think that education will be a huge area for tablets.
Education – technology renaissance. I have always thought that someday high school and college kids won’t have to schlep around tons of text books. Tablets can already help reduce the burden. Kno Computing is migrating college text books to their own reader platform, but I think longer term, the more exciting thing will be to see text books migrate from being static to being dynamic so that authors can constantly revise their text books (better examples, more animation, more testing) and students will interact with them for active learning (vs. passive reading).
Mobile commerce. The announcement of the creation of Isis by AT&T Inc., Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile USA Inc. is very important. The real innovation will come in 2012 when the near field communications chip is included in all major popular phones and software is provided so that everyone will have a “mobile wallet” in which they can select their payment type and then touch the checkout terminal in the store to complete the payment. Between now and then, there are tons of other things such as transfer of funds between phones, payment of bills and mobile banking that will drive the market in 2011.
Mobile-cloud hybrid computing. As I have said before, the future of mobile is around the combination of mobile-centric computing activities with the user backed up by services provided through the cloud. I call this mobile-cloud hybrid computing. It’s not all cloud-based and not all mobile-based but a combination of the two.
Mobile screen to dominate. User’s are spending more and more time on mobile device and less and less time using other “screens” such as looking at newspapers, magazines, traditional TV and the PC/Internet. This has huge implications for advertising.
Location-aware services. With more time spent using your smart phone, there will be a huge increase in the development of location-aware services. Some examples include Foursquare, Point Inside, Aisle411, Yelp and Groupon (which clearly is going to migrate from offers to your home PC to offers to your smart phone, which, in turn, takes into account your current location).
Creation and consumption of more rich media. We now commonly see five-megapixel cameras with flash and autofocus in smart phones. They also capture video, often in high definition. This represents another huge change in content created on smart phones. And, these same users are exploding in the consumption of rich media (photos, movies) on their smart phones. More bandwidth is required and the good news is that 4G wireless (e.g. LTE) will help solve this problem – most of the time. But, it’s going to take time to get all of this working correctly which brings me to my last point.
Management of pervasive connectivity. All smart phones today include multiple ways in which to communicate, including both Wi-Fi & 3G. With users creating and consuming more rich media, there needs to be more intelligent management of the content that is both being downloaded to the smart phone and being uploaded as well. We need to have more intelligence in the pervasive communications process so that large files will be only down/up loaded when there’s a Wi-Fi connection. With tie
red pricing, users have to make sure that they d
on’t run up a large bill simply sending the video they just created to a friend. We need to see connectivity management include switchable connections (between wide area and Wi-Fi) and least cost routing of your communication links.
I wish each of you a Happy New Year! And, I hope each of you is able to participate in mobile and wireless during 2011 either as a customer or a producer of goods and services.
J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D. is Principal Analyst, Mobile & Wireless, MobileTrax L.L.C. As a nationally recognized industry authority, he focuses on monitoring and analyzing emerging trends, technologies and market behavior in the mobile computing and wireless data communications industry in North America. Dr. Purdy is an “edge of network” analyst looking at devices, applications and services as well as wireless connectivity to those devices.
