Reader forum: LTE – it’s a Little Too Early

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As we see the first LTE deployments and their promises of speed comparable to fixed broadband, we also witness the growing pains associated with the launch of this technology.
Let’s take a look at the state of the market and technology to understand how quickly we should buy a LTE phone. My conclusion? It’s still a Little Too Early for LTE.
According to the Global mobile Suppliers Association, the current number of commitments from network operators to implement LTE as of March 24, is 140. This is almost a quarter of the 600-plus carriers who have bravely pledged to invest in LTE.
When I traditionally look at the penetration of a new technology in the wireless ecosystem, I rely on a few indicators to gauge where we are in the adoption cycle.
Mass market penetration: I would look for at least 30% of a given population having implemented the technology and having devices in their hands capable of using it. That could mean 30% of network operators in the case of LTE, but more importantly, I would look at 30% of the subscribers of a given operator having an LTE subscription as a sign of maturity.
On this, we are still far out . Out of the nearly 100 LTE devices out there, only six are smartphones and seven are tablets. The rest are notebooks, modems, dongles, routers, etc. Only 17 networks are actually live today, in many cases at the city level. It is hard to find figures in term of LTE subscriber (except for Verizon Wireless), and I think in itself it is a bad sign. The figures don’t spell mass market adoption anytime soon.
Interoperability: This is a key criterion that is overlooked time and again in wireless. This is about interoperability between the devices, the devices and the network, backwards compatibility, interconnection between the networks, roaming, etc. This has been a consistent issue that has plagued the adoption of many wireless technologies over the last decades (WAP, MMS, PoC, IMS, etc.).
I think this is going to be the biggest issue. One of the key advantages of LTE for an operator is to be able to reuse spectrum and bands allocated to older technologies (think GPRS, EDGE, CDMA2000 1x). It allows operators to reuse existing spectrum, but it also results in over 30 different frequency bands that can be used by a given operator.
Operators have bid or have been allocated frequencies to operate LTE. In many countries, like in the United States, operators have different bands, which will force device manufacturers to have multi-band devices. Multiply that to the scale of the 600-plus network operators worldwide and you understand that it might be a long time before we get a LTE world phone.
Ease of use, ease of adoption: In this case, I look at what the barriers to entry are for subscribers or operators to acquire and use the technology. The cost of license auctions, the relative cost of increasing HSPA+ network density and investments. What will femtocell or data offload do to the demand?
The peak speeds advertised are definitely exciting and certainly raise questions about unplugging fixed line access. If you factor in the interoperability issue highlighted above, you have to think that each band requires a specific radio module. That comes with an impact on antenna, cost and battery life. Economically and form factor-wise, it will be difficult to have a smartphone today that will accommodate more than six LTE bands.
This situation could lead to a variety of short term hindrance:
–Operators asking manufacturers for devices supporting as many as 12 bands to cater for international roaming. This will increase price of devices, decrease battery life and slow down adoption of technology for business users and travelers.
–We could be left in the short term with devices that will work only on one network and will have to step down to 3G or less while roaming. Or expensive, bulky devices that can be used for international roaming, but could have the size of the phones we use to have in the 90’s.
–The only cost-effective devices in the short term might be stationary ones (connected TVs, PVRs, home phone replacement). They will accelerate the transition from fixed to mobile broadband but might taint the customer’s perspective towards LTE.
I have no doubt LTE will be successful as a technology but there is still a lot of work to be done for the industry to make LTE sufficiently attractive to mass market.