Rumours of Facebook’s death have been greatly exaggerated

Since Google launched it’s new project, Google+, there have been many claims that it is a Facebook killer. The idea seems to be that Google+ is so much better than Facebook that surely the Mountain View giant’s offering will win out. Surely Facebook’s days are well and truly numbered and there is a new social media king in town.

I wish it were true, but I think all this excitement is more than a little premature. Let’s take a look at the evidence shall we?

First of all, there is the issue of market share.  Facebook has it.  Lots of it. There are those who would argue that Google+ is much better than Facebook.  They would point you to the privacy issues that Facebook has, and show you how Google+ does not share those problems.

You would be directed towards the concept of “circles” on Google+ and told how awesome and innovative they are. All those arguments are fair but, at this stage of the game, being better simply isn’t good enough. Google+ needs to be much more than just better, it needs to be so much better that people are actually willing to abandon Facebook and everything they’ve built up there.  Or at least good enough to convince people that it is worth having yet another social media service in their lives.

Better doesn’t cut it – here, only awesome will do. The fiasco that was Buzz shows this.  Even Google Wave tells a tale.  There is no doubt that Wave was better than email – but it wasn’t enough to make people change the habits of a cyber lifetime. Is Google+ that good? Possibly, but it is far too early to be sure and certainly far too early to be crowing about it.

Secondly, we need to take a look at Google’s strategy for launching Google+.  Even if it is as mind-bendingly spectacular as it needs to be, there is a very particular window in which to get the foot in the door. Using the invite approach that Google has favoured does generate interest.  It also has the effect of keeping the community small.

But herein lies one of the major problems that Google+ faces.  With only a small pool of people to follow, it quickly becomes very dull. No doubt there are some who got in early enough with all their friends and have a large group of people in their various circles. For many of us, however, there simply is not any reason to come back regularly to check our Google+ “stream”. If Google opens it up to the public soon then this may not be a problem – but it does need to be very soon.

If Google doesn’t open it up before the buzz dies (pun intended) then Google+ may go the way of the other Google initiatives.

I, for one, very much hope not, but it may already be too late.