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It looks like unlimited data is becoming a thing of the past for wireless subscribers, at least in the United States. Blame the exploding demand for mobile data. After all, today’s wireless subscribers are armed with dual-core, 1 GHz smartphones that are as powerful as desktop PCs were a few years ago. And those phones are accessing a dizzying array of online data services delivered over wireless networks that can rival cable in terms of speed — the reason for the explosion.
Cisco researchers taking a closer look at mobile data trends expect the average user will consume 7 gigabytes per month by 2014, which is 5.4 times greater than today. Another eye-opening prediction is the 39-fold increase in annual global mobile data traffic from 2009 to 2014, or a compound annual growth rate of 108%. That’s 3.6 exabytes per month or an annual run rate of 40 exabytes by 2014.
In response, nearly all of the major U.S. carriers are rethinking their all-you-can-eat data plans.
–AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless are moving in parallel, no longer offering unlimited data to first-time smartphone subscribers. Long-time AT&T Mobility subscribers can still get unlimited data, but they “may experience reduced speeds” once their usage in a billing cycle reaches the level that puts them among the top 5% of heaviest data users. Ditto Verizon Wireless. To retain high speed regardless of usage, subscribers of both carriers must switch to tiered plans that tack on per-gigabyte overage charges to their monthly access fees.
–T-Mobile USA offers “tiered-unlimited” plans. Subscribers get 2 GB, 5 GB or 10 GB of high-speed data, depending on the plan selected. After they reach that cap, T-Mobile USA reduces data speeds until the next billing cycle.
–Sprint Nextel is the only major carrier to offer what might best be called a purely unlimited data plan: all you can eat, without any usage-based speed reductions. But company CEO Dan Hesse has repeatedly suggested that unlimited data could end if usage gets out of hand.
So how are subscribers getting around carriers’ data caps? Wi-Fi.
In a poll of 1,227 Wi-Fi users, Devicescape revealed that 64% use Wi-Fi outside their home or office daily — or many times each day — compared with 10.4% who use it only at their home or office. And that 64% is most commonly using Wi-Fi at a cafe or coffee shop, hotel or school hot spot.
Meanwhile, the user experience at Wi-Fi hot spots should continue to improve, thanks in part to efforts by groups like the Wi-Fi Alliance and the Wireless Broadband Alliance. The two groups are collaborating on programs to improve Wi-Fi hot spot ease of use and roaming.
The WBA’s Next Generation Hotspot program defines interoperability requirements for Wi-Fi hot spots and 3G/4G operators, addressing concerns such as seamless, secure auto-authentication and auto-connection on multiple operator networks. The program trial, which involves end-to-end interoperator testing of the NGH requirements, began this summer. The Wi-Fi Alliance’s Wi-Fi Certified hot spot certification program, slated to launch in mid-2012, is focused on letting Wi-Fi devices easily connect at hot spots in a security-protected, interoperable fashion.
With subscribers already turning to Wi-Fi to supplement their wireless data plans — and industry alliances championing the Wi-Fi option — carriers would be wise to have a strong Wi-Fi strategy in place to help retain customers.
