Mobile is fueling a radical shift in information technology, and 2013 will be a pivotal year, according to analyst firm IDC. The firm sees the IT industry in the biggest shift it has undergone since the 1980’s.
Frank Gens, IDC’s senior vice president and chief analyst, aid in a webinar that the firm continues to see changes and trends reflected in its “third platform” view, that information technology competitiveness and growth depend directly on mobile and cloud-based competence.
“That’s our view that the IT industry is in the middle of a once-every-25-year shift to a new technology platform for growth and innovation – that’s built on mobile devices and applications, it’s built on cloud services, it’s built on big data analytics, social technologies, new industry solutions build on top of that; engaging new communities of strategic customers: consumers, small and medium businesses, emerging markets, line of business executives and so forth,” Gens said.
In 2013, Gens said, “The third platform market is finally right here in our metaphorical laps.”
Although IDC expects overall IT spending to be slightly down from its 6.2 percent growth rate in 2012, mobile and cloud-based investments will still fuel the majority of its 5.7 percent growth rate.
IDC predicts that the small tablet market – wireless tablets with a screen size smaller than eight inches – will be particularly robust, jumping from 33 percent of shipments this year to 66 percent of unit shipments in 2013. Most of the growth fueled by the introduction of the iPad mini, with Amazon’s Kindle series, Google’s Nexus 7 tablets, and the nook also playing a role in the small tablet frenzy. With the smaller tablets at lower price points, Gens said that school systems will finally begin to reach the point of exploring pilot programs to replace textbooks with tablets.
In fact, IDC said, users are moving ever closer to the point where most people use smart wireless devices, rather than PCs, to access the Internet. IDC expects to reach that tipping point in 2015.
Emerging markets will continue to fuel worldwide IT investments, and vendors in those markets will exert more influence on design point, pricing and market leadership in the developed world as well.
“These markets generate so much business that if you’re successful in these markets, that’s a launch pad for becoming very strong in the developed markets as well,” Gens said. He noted that vendors such as China’s ZTE are growing strongly on the basis of offering low-cost smartphones for emerging markets.
Gens said that the next generation of IT software service trends is the concept of a “platform as a service, or PaaS — where companies develop cloud-based software solutions for specific industries, rather than accepting broad solutions from traditional vendors. Often the companies who are doing the development are not traditional IT players, but participants within the industry they seek to serve; he cited the example of genetic sequencing company Ilumina, which provides clinical information but has also developed a series of applications for genetic sequencing to offer to its bioscience customers. This type of new player will offer both the possibility of new partnerships and new competition within IT enterprise.
Meanwhile, IDC predicts that “Bring Your Own ID” — not just Bring Your Own Device — is going to expand its reach in enterprise IT and security, and enterprise authentication will begin to look more like large consumer brands such as Facebook, Google and Yahoo. Gens said that rather than try to replicate widely-adopted consumer technology such as, say, Drop Box for file sharing , IT players will likely try to acquire technologies that are already broadly used because the value is in their reach rather than in the technology itself.
Retail is already reaping the benefits of the shift toward mobile, Gens said. Almost 50 million U.S. shoppers are using “showrooming” options to browse and compare prices on their smartphones and tablets this holiday season, compared to just 20 million users last year. Mobile friendly, tech-savvy retailers are able to engage wireless users via features such as in-store applications and QR code squares, and mobile-friendly stores will drive nearly $2 billion in revenue this holiday season, according to IDC.
