Editor’s Note: With 2014 now upon us, RCR Wireless News has gathered predictions from leading industry analysts and executives on what they expect to see in the new year.
There’s a seismic shift headed our way in the wireless industry. Many vendors, providers and developers will be caught off-balance as they scramble to adapt to new standards, forge new partnerships and deliver products that meet the potential that new technologies afford us, and the expectations of customers and users.
That said, it’s an exciting time: the next year will likely usher in a “bump up” in wireless technology, with speeds faster than we could ever have anticipated even five years ago, an industry that’s working together to enable an unprecedented level of seamless connectivity and the business opportunities that brings.
Some predictions for 2014:
First Hotspot 2.0 pilot deployments in 2014
I am eagerly looking forward to new deployments with Hotspot 2.0 technology, which will go from pure pilot installations to more commercial networks in 2014. Hotspot 2.0 enables compatible devices to automatically and silently discover and then connect to Wi-Fi access points that have roaming agreements with the user’s home network. The user experience will be similar to when you enter a new mobile network, turn on your device and the services will work instantly and be billed through roaming.
First trusted 3GPP Wi-Fi deployments in 2014
The evident need for mobile operators to gain control of the user experience in Wi-Fi and to streamline services over the different radio technologies will drive adoption of 3GPP Wi-Fi access with mobile core integration.
New standards force vendors to prove themselves
Vendors will be put to the test as they develop solutions that incorporate these new standards. Why? Real-world installations are far different from theory, and no matter how well a standard has been thought out, in-the-field installations require creativity and on-the-fly innovation. A good example of this is the 3GPP Wi-Fi access standard that requires support for SIM authentication (EAP-SIM/AKA) in the device although a large portion of the installed base of devices does not support EAP-SIM/AKA. Expect to see a real shakeup as those who innovate to overcome challenges like this stand out, and those that don’t get left behind.
Small cells will take off, but deployment models for Wi-Fi will not change
Mobile operators will increasingly look to small cells with integrated Wi-Fi for fast, cost-effective Wi-Fi deployments. Small cells are an excellent way for mobile operators to get coverage and increase capacity in denser areas, and they need all the spectrum they can get, both licensed and unlicensed. However, what they will find is that the fundamental characteristics of the unlicensed Wi-Fi will not change just because the Wi-Fi is embedded with a base station, at least not when deploying at venues. Most venue owners already have some kind of Wi-Fi. Rather than negotiating space for their small cells with the venue (which risks interference with the existing Wi-Fi), mobile operators instead need only sell their carrier Wi-Fi services to the venue owner in order to gain footprint at that specific location. With the right business-to-business functionality including venue-specific portals with open SSID, mobile operators will be able to monetize Wi-Fi beyond their own internal need for their subscribers.
Cable companies court mobile operators
The trend with “homespots,” allocating the excess capacity in Wi-Fi-enabled set-top boxes in homes of subscribers for public use, will continue. With the homespot concept cable operators can deploy – virtually overnight – a carrier-class hotspot service with excellent capacity and coverage.
Worldwide, cable operators are experiencing a painfully reducing margin on their core business: the cost of content (video, television, etc.) is going up all the time, but cable companies are stuck at that fixed price they’re charging consumers.
Traditionally cable operators’ competitive edge has come from offering broadband Internet and TV bundles. However, cable companies are constantly losing subscribers that are actually paying for the TV piece thanks to the wide availability of alternative online video services fueled by access to affordable cellular 4G data services from anywhere.
From 2014 and beyond cable companies will have to compete in broadband Internet and TV separately and in their own right while still offering attractive bundles. They have everything in place to offer a competitive broadband Internet service with excellent economy of scale except for a good mobility offering for subscribers.
In 2014 cable companies will start using their Wi-Fi homespot networks as a strategic asset. They will be able to reduce churn and add new subscribers by offering nomadic Internet access through their Wi-Fi homespot service and they will be able to sell Wi-Fi capacity to other operators including to mobile operators for offloading. The emerging Hotspot 2.0 standard coupled with the increasing number of Wi-Fi roaming aggregators will only facilitate this trend with cooperation in Wi-Fi footprint.
Wi-Fi gets a backbone
One of the biggest threats to Wi-Fi is poor backbone connectivity. It’s ridiculous that sometimes I can get the same or even higher data speeds using 3G mobile broadband than when I am connected to the Wi-Fi service from the same provider.
This year, Wi-Fi networks will finally offer better end-to-end connectivity. The Wi-Fi folks will start realizing that since the new 802.11ac standard can achieve up to one gigabit per second, which in practice will mean several hundred megabits per second for individual devices, it’s time to start making use of these speeds in the backbone. When the air interfaces can offer those speeds and the operators’ backbones many times have excess capacity, using ADSL for the last mile has become a bottleneck. This is where fiber comes in to save the day. So for 2014 we expect service providers to replace existing ADSL links with fiber deployments in order to support these speeds.
Wi-Fi offload enters a new phase
For the past few years, mobile operators have focused on creating a “seamless” Wi-Fi offloading experience. But many have been offloading subscribers without retaining visibility or control of the user once they cross into Wi-Fi. In 2014 carriers see Wi-Fi as a strategic asset and gain control of the user experience in Wi-Fi networks.
We predict Wi-Fi offloading deployments will continue to follow a trajectory with four
distinct phases:
1. Separate networks: Started early in the decade but was not considered offloading back then.
2. Seamless offload: Started around 2010.
3. Mobile core integration: Will start 2014.
4. Heterogeneous network smart offload: Will start 2015/2016.
Mobile operators have realized that their subscriber base will spend a large portion of their online time in Wi-Fi, and thus it must be as convenient and secure as their 3G/4G offerings. That’s where SIM Authentication and integration with the mobile core for policy and charging becomes a strategic asset for mobile operators, allowing them to gain control of the user experience in Wi-Fi networks and deliver that seamless user experience.
Torbjorn Ward has more than 20 years of experience in different senior executive and management positions within the telecom and mobile communications market. He has been the CEO of Aptilo Networks since its inception and was part of the founding team in 2001. Before Aptilo Networks, Ward was GM of Axis’ Mobile Internet Division and in that position was responsible for guiding the company’s wireless and mobile communications initiatives. Prior to Axis, he spent eleven years with Ericsson where, while based in the United States, he founded and built Ericsson’s Digital Wireless Office business in cellular technology. While in Canada he was Manager for Ericsson’s Radio Systems Management/TDMA division and before that he held various positions in Mobile Systems in Sweden. Ward holds a Master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden and holds eight separate patents in the area of wireless/mobile communications.
