Editor’s Note: Welcome to our weekly Reality Check column where C-level executives and advisory firms from across the mobile industry share unique insights and experiences.
For the first time this year, the two major annual trade shows organized by the Competitive Carriers Association and CTIA were held at the same time in Las Vegas. For anyone who has in the past benefitted from attending both events, this was not an ideal arrangement. While making one fewer trip to Las Vegas is advantageous, it is not possible for an individual to fully participate in both events as the events were in different locations. CTIA and CCA would do well to coordinate more closely going forward to improve accessibility while retaining the focus of the CCA‘s annual event.
Most significant development of the week
Apple announced its latest iteration of iPhone away from Las Vegas shows. This was not the biggest news. For me, the fact that Apple chose to schedule its announcement at the same time as the already scheduled CTIA opening day keynote is the key development. Apple effectively disrupted a keynote session in which the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission and the CEO of Verizon Wireless were headliners. CTIA hastily rearranged its schedule to accommodate Apple’s disdainful arrogance. CTIA re-scheduled the start time of its keynote to begin 15 minutes earlier and added a panel to the keynote agenda to provide live coverage of Apple’s announcement. Whether the scheduling conflict was a deliberate attempt by Apple to send a message to the wireless industry or just cluelessness on its part, this is the clearest indication yet that mobile network operators are losing (or have already lost) the value-added services sector. MNOs are well on the path to becoming little more than bit pipes and their warm embrace of Apple’s latest offering suggests they do not have sufficient leverage to do otherwise.
The state of the industry: regulations, spectrum, net neutrality
The dueling comments on net neutrality during Wednesday’s keynote session from the president and CEO of CTIA, Meredith Attwell Baker, and the CEO of Twilio were quite entertaining. Seems that CTIA is for some special form of net neutrality, while innovators like Twilio want a truly open Internet. Operator-controlled walled gardens may be dead, as FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler pointed out, but there is great danger that massive, cash-rich corporations could create future walled gardens absent appropriate net neutrality rules. The previously noted situation with Apple should give the CTIA pause.
Baker made an interesting case for mobile broadband not being designated as a Title II utility. Then she said words to the effect that such a Title II designation would drive innovation overseas. Wow, what an assertion! Consider how this applies to the radio access network infrastructure supply base, the foundation of mobile broadband, in the United States: Ericsson is Swedish; Alcatel-Lucent is French; Nokia is Finnish; and Samsung is Korean. With or without Title II designation, RAN innovation has largely left the United States. Yes, there are smaller U.S.-based RAN vendors, primarily for small cells, but one wonders whether any of them will have a shot at displacing a large incumbent vendor to become a major supplier to a national wireless operator in the United States.
Of course, spectrum is always a part of the discussion. Wheeler was blunt regarding upcoming auctions: put your money where your “mouths have been,” or future regulatory actions could be quite different. It will be interesting to see whether the incentive auctions proceed in the face of legal challenges, and if so, whether the competitive carriers are able to secure useful chunks of spectrum.
CCA exhibit
The most interesting exhibit at the CCA show was the mobile unified communications solution that Tango Networks demonstrated. The company showed two modes of operation on mobile devices: client-less (native dialer) with an operator-based server; and client-based without operator dependencies (enterprise-only implementation.) Here is a value-added service that operators can offer that is likely to help reduce churn.
Driving network utilization: video, connected car and big data
The CTIA day one keynote session highlighted mobile video as a real opportunity. Verizon highlighted LTE broadcast — EMBMS. CTIA showed a video to introduce the topic that showed people watching small screens while walking, the irony of which was perhaps lost on CTIA. Walking while watching is in the same category as texting while driving.
Connected car seems to be the new hot topic. I certainly saw more connected vehicles on the show floor than ENodeBs. With the impressive 90% adoption rates General Motors quoted for the initial free trial period of the connected service, there is hope for significant long-term adoption. Noting that GM is partnered with AT&T for its solution, the question is whether such services will allow car owners to select their preferred service provider. If not, we may be seeing the emergence of new walled gardens.
Big data as such is not particularly interesting. However, the value-added services that apply analytics to network data offer greater appeal. Big data was everywhere, in disguise. There was evidence of a long tail of applications that use big data. Here are two examples from the CTIA show:
—Mix Telematics offers solutions for large fleets. What does this have to do with big data? As the company’s CEO explained the solution, it became clear that the predictive modeling it does to optimize asset utilization really makes its product a big data solution.
—Ericsson showed a fascinating big data application based on using microwave attenuation data to create weather maps. With a large installed base of microwave links, Ericsson measures rainfall attenuation and correlates to the strength of the storm. With this data, it then creates real-time weather maps. A really innovative big data application.
There seems to be renewed energy in the wireless industry. Let’s hope that SMW 2015 shows a continuation of this energy.
Madan Jagernauth started FutureMobile Service in 2013 after more than 20 years in the wireless industry, including leadership roles for internationally recognized companies like Huawei Technologies and Nortel. With a master’s degree in Engineering and an MBA in Telecommunications Management, Jagernauth has a broad understanding of technology and business, with a focus on innovative solutions to solve real-world problems. Today, Jagernauth applies this experience, focus and understanding of the evolving wireless industry landscape to provide wireless solutions for clients in the United States, including market analysis and forecasts, business analysis and planning, requirements analysis and wireless communication applications. futuremobileservices.com/.
