Analyst Jake MacLeod discusses the future of 5G and fundamental pieces including NFV, SDN and self-optimizing networks
With standardization of the waveform set for a 2020 release, Jake MacLeod, founder of Gray Beards Consulting, said that, for now at least, “5G” is a marketing term.
MacLeod stopped by the RCR Wireless News studios in Austin, Texas, to discuss how 5G will take shape ahead of an ultimate commercial rollout.
MacLeod called it “a very heavy topic” that will rely on three “building blocks” – network function virtualization, software-defined networks and self-optimizing networks.
“Each of these require a high level of complexity in order for them to work properly,” MacLeod said. “One of the other issues is the interoperability of say, NFV. Network functions virtualization means something different to Google and to Amazon and to AT&T and to Facebook. When you get into different industry sectors, it becomes a very, very complex problem for the OEMs.”
MacLeod also discussed the interoperability challenges associated with 5G, including backward compatibility, which is currently being considered by standardization body 3GPP. He explained the level of backward compatibility could hinder current functionality.
“Does it go back to 2G, 3G or just 4G? If you’re backward compatible to any of the previous generations, it hinders your ability to really have super functionality,” MacLeod stated.
Asked about a time line for commercial availability of 5G, MacLeod said the current target for a waveform standard is 2020 and that is “going to be delayed. There will be advanced issues of some of the 5G elements, or it’ll be 4.5, 4.75, 4.8 releases. 5G overall is going to be beyond 2020, but when it comes it’s going to be a game changer.”
Despite MacLeod’s projected timeline, Verizon Wireless is planning 5G trials as early as 2016, while the 2018 Olympics in Peyoncheng, South Korea, are set to play host to another round of 5G trials.
So how does that mesh with the lack of standardization?
MacLeod said, “5G, as it’s being used today, is a marketing term. They’re baby steps toward a super system, and … just like every generational change, we’re going to have to learn to ride this horse. There are no technicians who know the parameters yet.”
