What exactly are the business cases and use models for 5G?
There has been a lot of talk about “5G” recently. Hardly a day passes without yet another reference to the technology evolution. AT&T executive Glenn Lurie recently was quoted (here) in RCR Wireless News saying two fascinating things relative to 5G:
• “We as an industry have been really good at overpromising and underdelivering when it comes to new technology.”
• “Let’s make sure that before we start hyping what it’s going to be, that those standards are agreed to.”
Overpromising, underdelivering, hyping – interesting choice of words.
What is 5G anyway? I had an opportunity to attend a 5G panel session at the Competitive Carriers Association Annual Convention held in October. Here are the key takeaways from that session:
• 5G is not yet defined so the panel could not say what it would be, but still said the goal is to deliver real-world speeds in excess of 1 gigabit per second.
• There are no proposals for much greater spectral efficiency than LTE-Advanced so massive amounts of spectrum would be required – 500-megahertz channelization was mentioned. Precisely where that spectrum would be found was anybody’s guess, most likely above 10 GHz.
• Faced with skeptics in the audience (guilty), the suggestion was that much higher orders of multiple-input/multiple-output would have to be applied.
• Incidentally, 5G is not likely to be put into service until 2020, or later.
One has to wonder: what is the value of all of this enthusiastic chatter at trade shows when 5G is not yet defined? The reality:
• There are still more 2G subscriptions globally than 3G and LTE combined. That is, 2G solutions are still the primary means of mobile communications more than 20 years after its introduction.
• Projections are that by the end of 2020, there will be about as many HSPA as LTE subscriptions globally. That is, 3G solutions will still be in the mainstream 20 years after its introduction.
• If 5G is introduced in 2020 as a solution deployed in large blocks of spectrum above 10 GHz, it will not replace 3G or LTE as a means of delivering wide-area mobile service. By its very nature, the use of spectrum above 10 GHz will be for short-range communications, primarily for indoor, nomadic access.
Let’s put this into perspective. The ITU defined 4G. What was initially called 4G by mobile network operators was much less than what the ITU defined. The ITU indicated the capabilities of two standards that would meet the criteria it established for 4G: LTE-Advanced and IEEE802.16m. But, two operators in the U.S. chose to label WiMAX based on 802.16e and HSPA+ as 4G. When other operators followed by calling LTE 4G, the ITU’s definition was rendered meaningless – “FauxG,” as Dan Jones of LightReading labeled the overpromised, underdelivering solutions. Today, 4G and LTE are synonymous. The cellular industry seems hell-bent on repeating the excesses of 4G with 5G, seemingly with little self-awareness of its lack of credibility – a lack of credibility so eloquently expressed by Lurie.
Albert Einstein is credited with saying: “If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.” Each previous generational change had a technological cornerstone and a solid foundation of enhanced services. Each previous generational change of cellular technology can be simply described:
• AMPS to 2G was the transition from analog to digital radio.
• 3G brought mobile broadband. (Yes, 1 megabit per second is considered broadband. In fact, the Federal Communications Commission includes anything over 200 kilobits per second as broadband.)
• 4G is all about the transition from circuit switched to packet forwarding. (Yes, there is the transition from CDMA to OFDMA, but the greater impact to operators and consumers alike is CS to PS.)
So, the key question: what primary transition will 5G deliver?
The GSMA published a report on 5G that indicated two dimensions of improvements 5G aims to deliver: lower latency and higher speeds. It then sought to identify the applications 5G would deliver and came up with virtual reality and augmented reality as primary examples. This small set of applications is not convincing as a sufficient driver for a generational change, including the vast investment in new technology and infrastructure. It would appear the industry needs to return to first principles and ask a few questions:
1. What problem are we trying to solve?
2. How does the proposed solution create value for our customers and their customers (i.e.: operators and consumers)?
3. Is the proposed solution good enough at the right time?
To help get back to basics, there are a few questions 5G proponents need to address:
1. Can you define the 4G-to-5G transition in one clear sentence, preferably 10 words or less?
2. In what way will 5G in 2020 be better than Wi-Fi is today?
3. In which 3GPP release will 5G capabilities be delivered initially?
Technological change is a constant. Incremental changes delivered in each new 3GPP release have delivered LTE access mobile devices vastly better today than they were five years ago. It is to be expected the industry will continue to deliver ongoing incremental improvements and can do so without manufacturing a label that seems destined to be rendered meaningless through hype, excessive promises and failure to deliver.
Madan Jagernauth has more than 23 years of experience in the wireless industry, including leadership roles for internationally recognized companies like Huawei Technologies and Nortel. With a master’s degree in Engineering and a MBA in Telecommunications Management, he has a broad understanding of business and technology strategy, with a focus on innovative solutions to solve real-world problems. Today, he applies this experience, focus and understanding of the evolving wireless industry landscape to provide wireless solutions for clients in the United States, including market analysis and forecasts, business analysis and planning, requirements analysis and wireless communication applications. He can be reached at madan@futuremobileservices.com. www.futuremobileservices.com.
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