Virtual reality remains a new mobile technology, but software advances are expected to drive VR into successful markets over time
One of the new “mobile” devices that have received a lot of attention recently is virtual reality: wearing a headset/goggles that provides a display connected to a computer with significant graphics animation resources. When you put on the headset, you’re looking at a high-resolution display.
But, rather than just seeing a static image, a video is displayed. But not just any video – it’s a 3D video in which you are immersed into the viewing field. There’s feedback from the goggles to the computer that senses where you are looking: if you move your head up the image displayed is the one of you looking up, and if you turn your head left or right the system presents what the scene would be if you were in it and moved your head in those directions.
It turns out it is really quite challenging to generate the changes in the display that keep in step with the motion of your head. If the computing can’t keep up with your movements (which happens if you try to move your head too quickly) the images become out of sync with your head, which can (often) cause vertigo. There are a number of companies that are developing hardware and software for VR headsets because there are a number of large market opportunities, including (but certainly not limited to to):
• Travel – travel VR lets the user see what it would be like to visit another place without actually having to go there. These systems would help travel and visitor bureaus let people get a better and more realistic taste of what it would be like to go there.
• Visiting other worlds – one of the first VR experiences I witnessed was what it would be like to stand on the moon and look back at Earth. When I looked up, I could see Earth standing there is its glory and when I looked to the left or right, I could see the ground and horizon of the moon.
• Gaming – naturally, gaming will be a major market for VR. Users will be able to look around and even walk around the field of view in a game. Instead of just shooting at something, you could walk around and feel as if you are actually in the game.
• Training – here, VR can be used to present situations to people in which the headset would allow for simulating a factory or other environment like a retail store. The more realistic scenes would help make it easier for the user to learn in such settings.
• Health care – VR in health care has many uses including surgery simulation, phobia treatment, robotic surgery, education and training, visualization, treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder, treatment of Autism and the diagnosis of cognitive disorders (among others).
• Fitness – giving users a chance to, for example, jog on a treadmill and be immersed in the experience of jogging in a park in France or Central Park in New York.
The major hardware players include Oculus, a division of Facebook; Samsung Gear VR; PlayStation VR; and HTC Vive. Facebook acquired Oculus for $2 billion before the company launched its first headset because the Facebook team believed then (and now) that VR would become a very large business thus justifying the money Facebook paid. Nvidia, a graphics chip maker as well as graphics cards for desktop PCs, has invested in VR software and hardware.
As with any new market, VR will go through some growing pains. There is a lot of hype right now about VR. But, most new high growth markets go through a phase where hype exceeds market reality. Then, there’s a downward adjustment called the “trough of disillusionment” where there is a decline in market adoption while the hardware and software have to catch up and finally provide real benefits to the users. The market then steadily grows again on a more solid (financial, market) footing.
The key to VR is software not hardware. Most of the VR apps created so far are more of a demo than a real product. For example, the HTC Vive demo puts the user on the edge of an asteroid floating in space, staring down at a vastness with nothing to prevent you falling into it, a trick that reliably induces vertigo. Interesting app, but not one most people would buy.
I recently attended an Atlanta Wireless Technology Forum meeting focused on mobile video. One of the evening’s sponsors was Ninja Multimedia. They provide a tool kit to help developers build VR apps. My wife tried on their demo and it quickly caused her to experience vertigo. Interestingly, there are both hardware and software innovations that attempt to reduce or eliminate vertigo.
The Samsung Gear VR provides a headset and a mount for a Samsung smartphone and then special software is displayed to give a 3D effect. It’s a more basic solution, but it works. The Google Cardboard is along the same lines. You put an Android smartphone in a small cardboard container and then look through two lenses. The key to the unit is the two lenses that allow the displayed image to show up in 3D.
What’s clear is that VR is an amazing technology. And, VR will likely find a home in a number of useful areas such as gaming and being able to visit another place virtually. But, it is going to take a number of years for this to move from a technology breakthrough with overhype, maintain enough momentum to make it through the phase of disillusionment and then into the long-term market growth. There will likely be a number of VR apps that will take the market in new directions.
It’s always exciting to see a new market come together like VR and then astound us years later with something we can’t image today.
J. Gerry Purdy, Ph.D., is the principal analyst with Mobilocity LLC and a research affiliate with Frost & Sullivan. He is a nationally recognized industry authority who focuses on monitoring and analyzing emerging trends, technologies and market behavior in mobile computing and wireless data communications devices, software and services. Purdy is an “edge of network” analyst looking at devices, applications and services as well as wireless connectivity to those devices. He provides critical insights regarding mobile and wireless devices, wireless data communications and connection to the infrastructure that powers the data in wireless handheld devices. Purdy continues to be affiliated with the venture capital industry as well. He spent five years as a venture adviser for Diamondhead Ventures in Menlo Park, California, where he identified, attracted and recommended investments in emerging companies in the mobile and wireless industry. Purdy has had a prior affiliation with East Peak Advisors and, subsequently, following their acquisition, with FBR Capital Markets. Purdy advises young companies that are preparing to raise venture capital, and has been a member of the program advisory board of the Consumer Electronics Association that produces CES, one of the largest trade shows in the world. He is a frequent moderator at CTIA conferences and GSM Mobile World Congress. Prior to funding Mobilocity, Purdy was chief mobility analyst with Compass Intelligence. Prior to that, he owned MobileTrax LLC and enjoyed successful stints at Frost & Sullivan and Dataquest (a division of Gartner) among other companies.
Editor’s Note: Welcome to Analyst Angle. We’ve collected a group of the industry’s leading analysts to give their outlook on the hot topics in the wireless industry.
