Are Comcast’s eyes bigger than its stomach? A few years ago they acquired some wireless spectrum and thought they were going to be the next big wireless success story. They failed. Now it looks like they may be getting ready to give wireless a try once again. So the question, once again is, will they be successful this time or will they flop again?
I hope Comcast is successful in wireless. I want to see every competitor do well. Competition keeps every player at their best. However, it takes more than hope. It takes real innovative ideas and thinking to not only enter the wireless marketplace, but to be successful there as well. So does Comcast have what it takes this time?
Things are different today compared with several years ago. Back then the Apple iPhone and Google Android were still new and still in a rapid growth curve. Today, everyone who wants a smartphone, already has a smartphone. Today the smartphone market tries to win customers from competitors rather than trying to find the smaller number of newbies.
The traditional wireless marketplace, meaning AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, Sprint and T-Mobile U.S., still have the vast majority of market share. In recent years there have been several attempts by newcomers which want to change the wireless landscape.
AT&T Mobility, Verizon Wireless, Sprint, T-Mobile
Google Project Fi is one of them as an MVNO. However, even Google, which is one of the two most successful wireless players on the handset side with Android, is not making much of a dent. Perhaps the reason is they only offer their Nexus device. This is not a popular device. But for whatever reason they are not making an impact as a competitor as a service.
A few years ago there were other newcomers trying to make it in wireless. If you recall, Amazon Fire Phone was a flop. Facebook phone was disaster. And the cable television industry wireless effort including Comcast was a total zero.
The wireless challenge Comcast faces
I have been a wireless analyst for the last several decades and have seen many success stories and more failures and have written about them all in my columns, talked about them with the media and in speeches. So what’s coming next? What makes Comcast think things are different today compared with a few short years ago?
This is the challenge Comcast faces as they strategize over re-entering the wireless space. The wireless marketplace is different today. But is it different enough to give Comcast another shot?
Comcast no longer has the wireless spectrum they did last time. After failing they bundled their spectrum together with other cable company’s spectrum into a company called SpectrumCo and sold that to Verizon Wireless.
What is next step for Comcast CEO Brian Roberts?
Today, once again, Comcast needs wireless spectrum. They have been using Verizon Wireless as their wireless arm in a limited way. Last year after watching the competition, Comcast realized wireless was going to play a big role in the future of TV. So CEO Brian Roberts decided to re-engage with Verizon Wireless to try and come up with a new plan going forward.
So what is the next step for? Will they re-enter wireless as an MVNO like Google, reselling other carrier networks? Will they continue to partner with Verizon Wireless? Will they acquire a wireless network? Will they build their own wireless network? We don’t yet know what Roberts has up his sleeve yet.
AT&T changing television with wireless TV, mobile TV
The thing is, Comcast is right. Wireless is a big part of television’s future. Just look at how AT&T and AT&T Mobility are using wireless TV and mobile TV to attract customers to their DirecTV and Uverse offerings. This is the next, big revolution.
If this is the case, the cable TV industry must adapt in order to survive. This forces Comcast, Charter, Cox and every other cable television network into the wireless world. They would rather it not change. They would prefer the good-ole-days.
Cable TV like Comcast, Charter and Cox must go wireless
However, if they don’t succeed with wireless, they will lose long-term as the marketplace changes. They will lose customers and market share if they cannot do what the competitors are doing that are changing customer expectations.
If Comcast knew TV was going wireless, I don’t think they would have spun off their spectrum holdings a few years ago. However, markets change quickly and when they do every competitor must change just to keep up. Either that or they will die. Consider Blackberry and Nokia as two recent examples.
Markets change and competitors must keep up
Today I hear Comcast is interested in bidding for new spectrum, which is a sign they will be moving back into the wireless world. The only question is will they be successful this time where they failed at wireless a few short years ago? That’s the big question.
I can’t answer that question. Only Comcast will be able to do that. They have to match the offerings of competitors with mobile TV. They have to introduce innovative new thinking and new ideas into the wireless marketplace. Can they do that or will this new wireless move be another real yawner like several years ago?
Comcast and Verizon Wireless
That’s the question. One thing Comcast has to understand is they must lead and innovate. That’s the only chance they have at making a dent in the wireless industry. Last time they simply offered wireless with no brand building or marketing and they completely missed the customer.
My educated guess is Comcast will eventually roll something out with new spectrum while working with Verizon Wireless since they don’t know the wireless business at all and they don’t want to fail again.
The only path to success for Comcast wireless
This time they must capture the imagination of the customer. They must offer a killer network with fast speeds and far reach. They must offer attractive devices that customers will want to buy. That means they must offer the hot devices like the Apple iPhone and Google Android like the Samsung Galaxy. That’s the only path to possible success going forward.
And they must spend lots of money and energy in the marketing of this new wireless service. Wireless is a cut-throat business and most competitors fail. If they stand a chance at winning, Comcast must create a new wireless brand in the marketplace that customers can understand and connect with.
Only if they do that will they have a chance in wireless against the big time players. If not, then they might just as well give up before they get started. The choice seems pretty simple to me. Let’s hope they understand. Good luck, Comcast.
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