Sure, the future is going to be awesome, but what’s the rush in getting autonomous vehicles and connected cars on the street?
Hello! And welcome to our Friday column, Worst of the Week. There’s a lot of nutty stuff that goes on in this industry, so this column is a chance for us at RCRWireless.com to rant and rave about whatever rubs us the wrong way. We hope you enjoy it!
For several years now I have been attempting to avoid the notion that autonomous vehicles and connected cars will actually become a thing. It’s not that I hate change or anything … which I sort of do … but that I just think proponents need to pump the brakes (see what I did there?) in terms of the timing and viability of such technology.
First, I probably need to provide some clarification on what exactly these vehicles are, or at least how I view them. Autonomous vehicles are those that do not need any “human” intervention to operate, while connected cars are those that rely on some sort of wireless communication technology in order to facilitate their autonomy. There are obviously some gray areas within these definitions, but you get the point.
Now, there are two main things that scare the hell out of me in terms of autonomous vehicles and connected cars.
First, it appears that most current iterations rely to varying degrees on embedded infrastructure for guidance. This includes the ability for onboard sensors to “read” lane markings and other traffic controls painted on the ground, as well as read signs posted along thorough fares.
In watching demonstrations of autonomous vehicles I am always take aback by the near pristine condition and placement of such guides, and thus not really shocked by the vehicle being demonstrated ably managing to navigate a desired course.
However, the real world seldom includes such pristine conditions, and in fact around these parts such things as readable lane markings and properly installed street signs are often tough to come by. Why, just the other day I was driving down a freshly paved section of road that lacked any sort of lane markings, a condition that remained for several days.
Then there are the sensors used by these vehicles to see where they are going. In areas with near perfect weather conditions and places where people love to wash their vehicles on a daily basis these sensors should be all good. But in areas that have what are known as “seasons” the chances for such pristine operating conditions are more difficult to come by. I have a family member with radar-based cruise control in their vehicle, and a pretty mundane snowstorm renders the sensor inoperable. Plus, a good snow typically wipes out the ability to see lane markings or street signs.
I know autonomous vehicles are becoming smarter and thus able to rely on more than just lane markings in order to work, but it would seem there are just way to many variables in what these vehicles will experience out there in order to operate safely.
https://youtu.be/AsTxS6tg6xc
(D’oh!)
In terms of connectivity, I have even greater concerns.
I know the mobile telecom industry has licked that annoying issue of calls being dropped for all conversations and data sessions, even more so (giving a 110%?) for in-vehicle communications. It really is amazing.
But, what about that ever-so-rare occasion when that cellular connection is dropped? What will that mean for that now un-connected car? Sure those issues might only be a few seconds in urban environments where a vehicle can probably handle being offline for a second or two (I mean, what’s the worst that can happen in a second or two with a two-ton vehicle moving at 70 miles per hour?), but what about in locations where cellular connectivity is missing for miles at a time?
I guess satellite could be a good back up, unless of course those remote locations also include canyons or tunnels that anyone with a satellite radio service knows wreaks havoc on service.
Again, these are all things that seem to work great in lab environments or under controlled situations, and like most I am impressed by many of the video demonstrations out there showing successful navigation by autonomous vehicles in “real world” environments. But the real world is nothing if not full of surprises, and it’s way to easy to throw scenarios out when watching these demonstrations that would undermine what is attempting to be shown.
(If it works here, it will work everywhere!)
I am all too familiar with the fact that many humans are not really qualified to operate a motor vehicle, and in some instances the chances of an accident are going to be significantly lower by replacing those driving dangers with HAL 9000. But, my own unscientific fact gathering has shown a significant increase in the number of my fellow drivers interacting with mobile devices or “connected” in-vehicle entertainment options instead of actually driving.
I guess throwing more technology at a problem being caused by technology is an option.
Then of course there are the ethical dilemmas involved in the technology. We have all heard the various scenarios where an autonomous vehicle will have to decide what to hit should an accident be unavoidable.
Not to over-hype these situations, but with a somewhat litigious society, these issues will need to be worked out ahead of time under the framework of government regulation that with so much at stake could be paralyzed by the challenges involved. All the while, autonomous vehicle and connected car proponents will continue to move full throttle (wink, wink) with testing technology in closed environments and open roads.
If we could somehow one day just all switch over to connected cars and autonomous vehicles, removing all human control in an instant, I am sure the utopia touted in PowerPoint presentations and carefully controlled demonstrations can be achieved. But, we all know that is not possible, and thus we are looking at a hybrid-type environment that from my view could be calamitous.
Are connected cars and autonomous vehicles in our future? I have no doubt. But, I think the reality is we are still decades away from there being the necessary infrastructure and technology advances in place to support such moves, and perhaps longer before the regulatory environment can work through the ethical challenges.
So, how about we (manually) pump the brakes (I did it again!) on the matter until we can do it right.
I welcome your comments. Please send me an e-mail at dmeyer@rcrwireless.com.
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