Gigabit-based services will become the norm in 2017, with pressure and support coming from VR, 5G, cellular IoT, SDN and SON.
Editor’s Note: With 2017 virtually upon us, RCR Wireless News has gathered predictions from across the mobile telecommunications space on what they expect to see in the new year.
The need for speed continues unabashed in 2017, with gigabit speeds becoming the marketing pitch not only for fiber deployment, but for every access medium for copper, cable and wireless operators – and that’s a first.
Copper deployments will meet the challenge using G.fast, a technology that utilizes a noise cancelling technique called “vectoring” along with enhanced modulation schemes to get more out of what’s in the ground today. In wireless, increased levels of carrier aggregation and the usage of unlicensed spectrum (license assisted access) will help do the same in LTE, while, of course “5G” trials will try to go beyond a single Gbps. Optical has and always will have physical benefits from a pristine fiber medium. And here we imagine 10 Gbps thanks to 10-gigabit symmetrical-passive optical network starting to become the de facto planning base for new deployments with an eye to ever-higher speeds of 25 Gbps and even 100 Gbps in the future. Not to be outdone, we also see hybrid fixed and wireless solutions coming to the market to help deliver gains not possible with a single technology.
All of this speed will not come without architectural changes to the operator’s network. In both the fixed and wireless domains, speed will come at the expense of shorter loop lengths and cell sizes. This shrinkage of service area will bring the necessary fiber to backhaul all that traffic closer to the edge. As capacity becomes almost infinite, operators will be able to move more complexity from the far reaches of the network to more centrally located facilities either at the central office or head ends that have been augmented. As we envision the emergence of these highly distributed edge clouds, these small-scale central office like deployments will address the increasingly important issue of latency for the next-generation applications that are appearing by reducing the need of “tromboning” all traffic through a few large core sites.
Distribution comes at a cost. It implies significant optical and IP investments (which we like), but also more attention to automation. The reason is the inherent complexity that comes with distribution. To resolve this we see software-defined networking starting to become mainstream in 2017. Along with this, increased investment in self-organizing networks and analytics, using machine learning to give the end customer an increasingly personalized and more powerful network experience, while keeping costs affordable. These concepts are not new, but distributed networks will move them from being interesting science experiments to mandatory network administration capabilities.
Nowhere will distributed networks and edge clouds be more de facto than in 5G. And how could we make predictions without mentioning 5G? In 2016, 5G largely equated to great PowerPoint decks and some proof-of-concept systems. In 2017, something, as they say, hits the fan as reality sets in. In this case we mean trial systems will start being deployed, which will bring out the truth on the practical implications of millimeter-wave deployments, viability of the use cases being considered and the cost forecasts of end-to-end solutions. But this is all good. Simulations and PoCs can only go so far. As we near the end of 2017, we imagine a far more real life, fact-based view of 5G enabling better forecasts of what’s to come.
With all this talk of the future, we shouldn’t forget the past. Aging and ailing technologies like legacy public switched telephone networks, baremetal cable solutions, CDMA, WiMAX, and GSM are due to meet their maker, albeit in good time as millions of users continue to depend on these legacy services. But death of the aged usually means a path to enlightenment and an opportunity for new and innovative solutions. And that’s what we see. Virtualization will continue its unending path towards being the new norm for wireless in 2017, (as per a previous prediction). However, we now see it being applied to the existing fixed networks such as hybrid fiber-coaxial networks to reduce power and space constraints at the hub office.
And what services will use all this speed and capacity? Unicast video and virtual reality are without a doubt at the cusp of large-scale adoption. As nearly every show that exists becomes available through streaming and nearly every broadcaster offers a streaming option, it’s clear unicast video is on a classic hockey stick trajectory. Likewise, with Google, Facebook and Samsung offering commercial hardware VR systems, there’s little doubt they will be the Christmas gift of 2016, and 2017, will be a year of growth and content.
But these are consumer systems. The “internet of things” in 2017 will finally start to take off for cellular solutions with Cat-M and narrowband-IoT going network wide in most carriers. That has a few interesting implications. First, does it mean the death of LoRa and Sigfox? Perhaps not, but perhaps it will constrain their growth as it is difficult to match the network coverage of the top four carriers in the U.S. The other implication is whether low-power solutions, especially for the home, move from Z-Wave and Zigbee to cellular. Once again, the answer is perhaps not as cost points are unlikely to be equal for some time and full wide-area mobility is not needed in many, if not most, use cases. Nevertheless, low-cost cellular IoT will start in 2017, and its growth in subsequent years will be a great topic for a 2018 predictions article.
So what does this all mean for 2017? It will be an exciting year for “kickoffs,” with gigabit access, VR, 5G trials and cellular IoT. Some of these will bring architectural changes to the network. It will also be a year of evolution for legacy systems and establishment of a new norm for cloud, SDN, analytics and SON. In short, it will be a great year for CTOs as the combination of these effects will make for difficult, yet critical decisions that will affect the long-term health of both vendors and operators alike.
Mike Murphy is an international technology expert with extensive experience in running technology development programs on a global scale for some of the top companies in the telecommunications industry. He has an extensive background in both research and development and profit and loss ownership globally. As CTO for North America for Nokia Networks, Murphy is responsible for supporting senior customer engagements and influencing corporate strategy in both product direction and roadmaps. Murphy has a master’s degree in Mathematics from the University of Waterloo in Canada.
