The embedded SIM market is expected to grow from about $4.7 billion this year to $16.3 billion by 2027—representing 249% growth during the period, according to Juniper Research.
The total number of smartphones that use eSIM will jump from about 986 million this year to 3.5 billion by 2027, Juniper estimates.
The analyst firm say that eSIM-enabled consumer devices, like Apple’s eSIM-only iPhone 14, will trigger increased operator acceptance of the technology. It also predicts that Apple “will expand deployment of eSIM-only devices to Europe during 2023, with eSIM technology key to [minimizing] the time-consuming establishment of roaming agreements within the fragmented European telecommunications market.” Apple competitors such as Google and Samsung will develop eSIM-only Android devices to stay competitive and maintain global market positioning, Juniper added.
“Despite operator concerns regarding the disruptive impact of eSIMs on existing business models, growing support from smartphone manufacturers will place additional pressure on operators. In response, service providers must support eSIM connectivity to avoid subscriber attrition as technology awareness increases,” said Scarlett Woodford, author of the research.
China and India are expected to account for about 25% of smartphones that use eSIM by 2027, with the United States making up about 10% of the projected smartphone eSIM market. But, Juniper notes, that depends on the tech being developed to the satisfaction of the Chinese government, which currently does not allow its domestic device manufacturers to sell eSIM devices in their home market because eSIM does not allow the level of device monitoring and tracking required by the Chinese government. Juniper said that growth of eSIM in China will depend on country-specific standards being implemented.
