More than six billion devices with embedded or integrated SIMs (eSIMs and iSIMs), plus related form factors (nuSIM and Soft SIM, for example), will be shipped over the next five years, to 2030. Seventy percent of all cellular-based devices shipped over the period will feature an eSIM (eUICC), but iSIM (iUICC) will be the preferred form factor by 2030 for all cellular categories. The forecast is from Counterpoint Research, which concludes eSIM adoption has passed an “inflection point” and is set for a high-growth phase from now.
The uptick is driven by rising adoption of eSIM-based smartphones, connected vehicles, and cellular IoT devices, it said. Even higher volumes will come as mobile network operators (MNOs) embrace the technology. A statement said: “The next phase of growth will be driven by greater awareness of eSIM among MNOs and device manufacturers, facilitated by the flexibility, cost efficiency, security, cost savings and above all, the key role eSIM is playing in the digital transformation of MNOs.”
Last year, eSIM-capable device shipments grew 11 percent, compared with 2021, to reach 424 million units. This was despite a three percent year-on-year fall in overall cellular-connected device shipments following weaker demand for smartphones. Shipments of iSIM-capable devices will reach a cumulative total of four billion units by 2030, when it overtakes as the dominant form factor.
As it stands, 275 MNOs support eSIM devices, for over 30 different eSIM-capable consumer devices, said Counterpoint. “The number of cellular IoT modules and devices is continuously growing,” it added, citing AR/VR, drones, and fixed-wireless access equipment as the fastest-growing categories. It noted that incoming drone regulation, around beyond-visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) operations, will stimulate the drone market, in particular, with usage in last-mile deliveries, disaster management, search and rescue, education, construction and agriculture.
The automotive sector, covering connected vehicles and smart mobility, is also described as a “huge growth area”. A first wave of “mainstream iSIM adoption” will be seen in “IoT applications driven by leading IoT chipset and module players”, said Countrepoint, naming Quectel, Telit, Sequans, and Sony Semi. It also cited innovations in the iSIM space by Kigen, G+D, and Thales, and “other key stakeholders” as Qualcomm, IDEMIA, Truphone, Redtea Mobile, Oasis SmartSIM, Apple, Samsung and Nokia.
Neil Shah, research vice president at the firm, commented: “The physical MFF2/WLCSP form-factor soldered eSIM chip has been the go-to standard for eSIM implementation alongside the other niche alternative implementations such as soft SIM and nuSIM. Over the next five years, hardware-based eSIM will remain the dominant eSIM form factor and will account for more than half of all shipments.”
Ankit Malhotra, a senior analyst, said: “Smartphones have been key in driving primary eSIM awareness among consumers and MNOs, and will continue to be the dominant eSIM-capable device category. Cellular connectivity in smartwatches is growing steadily which is also helping increase the penetration of eSIM-supported smartwatches. The adoption of entitlement servers by MNOs worldwide is a testament to the growing number of smartwatches and other companion devices powered by eSIM.”
A report with all the forecasts is available here.
