Artificial Intelligence has been with us for decades already, going through several boom-and-bust cycles. Now, in recent months Chatbot technology like ChatGPT and Bard have been showing incredibly strong and rapid growth. In fact, many competitors are gearing up to enter the market with their own versions, both here in the United States and in fact, worldwide.
Some say, AI and Chatbot technology have entered the stock bubble area. If this is true, and if it is currently a stock bubble, will it continue to rise as a long-term investment opportunity, or will it burst?
A second question is, if this is an ongoing growth opportunity, which companies will lead this space going forward.
Today, there is no one with the answer. Just opinions. And there are as many opinions on both sides. Times like this are when companies, investors, workers and competitors need to trust their gut.
Riding the AI, Chatbot growth wave
First, this is the early days of AI Chatbot revolution. Since this is an exciting and controversial sector and time, we should expect countless companies with their own technologies to claim they are in this space.
Doing so will help them look like they are riding the growth wave and that will help their investors make money. This has happened in the past with other technologies, and we can expect it will continue.
The problem is only a percentage of the companies who claim to be using AI, really are in a way that would impact their business.
In reality, only a few companies will be real long-term players and winners in the AI and Chatbot space. Most just want to be included in this massive change wave.
That’s why some companies and technologies will grow and others will fade after a period of time.
That doesn’t mean investors in all these companies won’t make money. It seems everybody in this new space will, for a while. Investors with good timing and luck will make money. They just need to know when to jump in and out.
Second, that means as AI and Chatbot matures over time, certain long-term leaders will emerge. These are the companies who everyone should try to determine at this point in time.
Some of them will be AI and Chatbot players like OpenAI is today. Others will be the companies that use this technology for the long term, like Microsoft and Google.
Third, as the AI and Chatbot industry continues to mature, different kinds of new technologies will enter the picture and they will be the next growth wave, potentially sending previous leaders to the back of the pack, virtually overnight.
This is how early sectors have grown over time. Let me give you an example.
Motorola led the wireless handset space for quite a long time. Then in the 1990’s, they missed the move from analog to digital. They gave up the lead to newcomers like Blackberry, Palm and Nokia for the next decade. That send Motorola to the back of the pack.
Next, Apple iPhone and Google Android entered the marketplace and quickly took the lead sending Blackberry, Palm and Nokia to the back of the pack along with Motorola.
This predicament has happened time and time in a variety of different sectors.
This is what could happen in the AI and Chatbot space. Companies coming up with new ideas can take quickly take the leadership position.
Apple iPhone and Google Android have been at the top of the smartphone space for more than a decade. Either they will continue to lead, or another company and technology will ultimately enter the space and take over.
However, this is not expected since both Apple and Android lead in all the spaces that let them be successful like their app stores.
With regards to AI and Chatbot, it really depends on whether today’s leaders can create a marketplace and own that space, keeping competitors at bay.
That is the challenge for today’s leaders in the space.
If they do just, it could mean companies like Open AI with their Chatbot technology that Microsoft users, or Google with their Bard Chatbot technology will have to continue to change as the industry advances.
AI Chatbot space will continue to grow with new competitors
If they can continue to do so, then perhaps they can continue in their leadership position.
However, many other Chatbot technologies are in the developmental stages. Many will enter the marketplace on an ongoing basis.
Some of these will have revolutionary new thinking.
If one of them can capture the imagination of the user, investors and the marketplace, they could rapidly change the leadership positioning.
That’s both the challenge and the opportunity faced by today’s leaders like OpenAI, Microsoft and Google. How do they remain in a leadership position.
Challenge and opportunity faced by todays AI Chatbot leaders
I would say Microsoft and Google would be able to work with other types of AI and Chatbot technology. So, they should continue to lead.
OpenAI with their ChatGPT technology is another question. If they can continue to advance their tech, they can continue to be a leader as well.
If they can’t, and if another idea captures the imagination, they could lose leadership.
That’s what we can expect going forward.
Based on what I see today, I do not think this sector going bust. Rather, I see it continually changing and the question.
The question of leadership going forward will always be in question. It depends on how well current leaders can fare and what new companies bring to the table.
Expect the AI and Chatbot industry to continue to show rapid growth and shift from one level to the next the same way we have seen smartphones do over the past decade and a half.
Companies like Google and Microsoft can continue to lead in their spaces using this technology or the next.
The real question is what technology will be next in line and what will it do and what company will be behind it? Will it be current leaders, or will it be a new competitor?
Going forward, that is always going to be the next question.
